Geopolitical Tensions, Market Forecasts, and the Future of Gold: Insights from Simon Hunt

Introduction

The conversation between host Danny and guest Simon Hunt covers a wide range of geopolitical and financial topics, from the looming crisis in Venezuela to the outlook for gold and silver. The discussion blends analysis of U.S. foreign policy, the role of China, Russia, and Iran, the Ukraine war, and the impact of these events on global markets.

Venezuela as a Test Case for Latin America

• U.S. Strategy: Trump’s new national strategy frames Latin America as the U.S. “backyard,” urging China to withdraw.
• Regional Support: Newly elected conservative leaders in Chile and Argentina have pledged to back any U.S. action against Venezuela.
• China and Russia’s Position: Both have invested heavily in the region (China $518 billion since 2013) but are keeping a low profile, watching for U.S. moves.
• Potential U.S. Actions: Simon predicts a CIA‑led black‑ops ground operation, possible assassination of President Maduro, and an attempt to spark civil war.
• Rumor Check: A rumor about large U.S. troop deployments in Puerto Rico to protect a “Trump palace” is mentioned but dismissed as unverified.

BRICS Currency, Oil Trade, and the Wider Implications

• BRICS Currency Plans: The bloc may launch a new currency next year, backed 40 % by gold and the remainder by a basket of fiat currencies proportional to GDP and population.
• Venezuela’s Role: If Venezuela falls, its oil could be sold in the BRICS currency, reducing U.S. dollar dominance and threatening American interests.
• Cascade Effect: A Venezuelan collapse could lead to similar outcomes in Colombia, Brazil, and Nicaragua, further weakening the BRICS‑U.S. balance.

Iran, Israel, and Turkey Dynamics

• Iranian Missile Build‑up: Israel warns that Iran could acquire up to 2,000 missiles in a single day, prompting pre‑emptive strike rhetoric.
• Turkey‑Israel Friction: Recent tensions stem from Israel’s actions in Syria and Lebanon, while Turkey seeks closer ties with Iran, creating a volatile regional triangle.
• U.S. Influence: Simon suggests the Trump campaign’s major donor may push for a “greater Israel,” positioning Iran as the primary obstacle.

Ukraine Conflict and European Strategies

• European Motivation: The UK, France, and Germany appear eager to keep the war ongoing to distract from domestic debt, anti‑EU sentiment, and immigration pressures.
• Troop Movements: British forces are reportedly in Estonia; French troops are in Odessa as Russia eyes further advances.
• False‑Flag Possibility: Europe might stage a false‑flag event to compel U.S. involvement, countering Trump’s reluctance.
• BlackRock Involvement: Simon speculates BlackRock holds mortgages on Ukrainian farmland and may seek reconstruction contracts, a move Russia would resist.

Global Bond Yields and Economic Pressures

• Rising European Bond Yields: Exploding yields could force the EU to consider capital controls, with spill‑over effects on global liquidity.
• Liquidity Slowdown: Michael How’s report indicates a slowdown in cross‑border capital, raising risk for assets.

Precious Metals Outlook

• Gold Price: Currently around $4,450–$4,500 per ounce; a correction to $3,600 is anticipated within weeks.
• Silver Price: Expected dip to $50 per ounce, potentially triggering a short‑cover rally.
• Bullion Banks: Only a handful remain short on silver; continued price falls could jeopardize them.
• BRICS Influence: Higher gold/silver prices benefit BRICS economies, which hold large reserves.
• U.S. Treasury Gold Revaluation: If the Treasury revalues its gold holdings at market price, the book value could jump from $40 billion to $4,000 billion.

Market Shakeout Predictions

• Timing: March and Q2 are historically volatile months; Simon expects a major market shakeout driven by economic weakness, credit stress, and the protracted Ukraine war.
• Rate Cuts: Anticipated cuts in January (20 bps) and March could set the stage for quantitative easing.
• Bond Yield Trajectory: 10‑year Treasury yields may rise from ~3 % to 5‑5.5 % by year‑end, potentially reaching double‑digit inflation by 2028.
• Political Impact: A shakeout could damage Republican prospects in the midterms, further destabilizing markets.

Conclusion

The episode paints a picture of a world on the brink: geopolitical flashpoints in Venezuela, the Middle East, and Ukraine intersect with financial stressors such as soaring bond yields and a looming precious‑metal correction. Simon Hunt warns that false‑flag operations, strategic currency shifts, and market shakeouts are likely before the end of the year, making gold and silver attractive hedges for investors who anticipate heightened volatility.

Geopolitical crises—from Venezuela to Ukraine—combined with strained global liquidity and looming corrections in gold and silver suggest a turbulent year ahead; investors should brace for market shakeouts and consider precious metals as a defensive hedge.