Silver and Gold Market Outlook 2026: Insights from SD Bullion’s 10‑Year Anniversary

Name: Bullion Dealer Reveals STUNNING SILVER PRICE PREDICTION FOR 2026
Uploaded: 2026-01-06T14:58:04.111364+00:00
Channel: Silver Dragons
Description: Summary and key takeaways on Silver and Gold Market Outlook 2026: Insights from SD Bullion’s 10‑Year Anniversary, covering Market Snapshot Silver has surged to

Silver Dragons

Jan 06, 2026

•

3 min read

YouTube video ID: 6oMcIYHEBdU

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Market Snapshot

Silver has surged to a new floor around $70/oz, showing strong resistance to falling below that level.
Daily price swings of $2‑$4 are common, indicating high volatility.
The COMEX recently executed a 30% margin increase for silver futures – the biggest since the 1980s.
China announced restrictions on silver exports, potentially limiting refined supply to 60‑70% of global output.
Gold premiums have risen above $4,500/oz for popular coins (e.g., Eagles, Buffalos), leading to near‑instant sell‑through of inventory.

Shop Activity & Restocking

SD Bullion celebrated its 10‑year anniversary; the shop is still rebuilding its silver showcase after a sell‑out on New Year’s Eve.
Customers are actively buying on dips (“smart stackers”), while others trade silver for gold to increase portability.
When gold is out of the showcase, the shop can still fulfill trades within three business days after ordering.

Price Predictions

Short‑term (Q1 2026): A 30% rise from current levels could push silver to $100/oz; the hosts consider this “not out of the question.”
Full‑year outlook: Some anticipate silver could reach $150/oz by year‑end, though the consensus leans toward a more modest climb.
Historical context: In 2025, silver was predicted at $42/oz but closed the year at $72/oz, even touching $80 briefly.

Supply Dynamics

Mining constraints: Most silver is a by‑product of copper and gold mines; new dedicated silver mines take ~5 years to become productive.
Current deficit: Approximately a six‑ to seven‑year shortfall in newly mined refined silver.
Higher prices are expected to incentivize miners to extract more silver and potentially accelerate new projects.

External Influences

China’s export limits may create perceived scarcity, driving prices higher despite physical availability at premium rates.
Cryptocurrency market: 2025 saw crypto down ~17% while silver rose ~160%; former crypto investors may be returning to precious metals.
Geopolitical & macro‑economic “black swans” could either boost or derail the rally, but the overall trend remains upward.

Community & Goal‑Setting

The hosts encourage viewers to set measurable stacking goals for 2026, emphasizing that “things that get measured get improved.”
Viewers are invited to comment on their personal targets—whether adding to, selling, or trading their metal holdings.

Practical Takeaways for Investors

Buy the dips: When spot prices dip, smart stackers tend to accumulate.
Watch export news: China’s policies can affect price spreads between regions.
Consider trade‑offs: Converting silver to gold may be attractive for portability, but expect short lead times for gold delivery.
Stay informed: Monitor COMEX margin changes and premium fluctuations for timing purchases.

Silver is poised to continue its strong rally in 2026, with a realistic chance of breaking $100/oz early in the year and potentially reaching $150/oz by year‑end, while gold remains scarce and premium‑driven. Investors should watch export restrictions, mining supply constraints, and macro‑economic shocks, and they are encouraged to set clear, measurable stacking goals to capitalize on the market momentum.

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Full Transcript YouTube

I think a $100 silver in the first
quarter is not out of the question
because we see jumps every day now in
the dollars. You know, $2, $3, $4 in
either direction. From a percentage
basis, we're not very far off of $100,
maybe a 30% rise, which would be a
fraction of last year's rise.
>> For this year, 2026, I'm thinking silver
could go all the way up to $150 an
ounce. Do you think that's possible?
Buy your gold and silver online from SD
Bullion. New customers get gold or
silver at spot by visiting
sdbullion.com/new.
Well, Harry, it looks like you guys were
able to restock the silver a little bit.
>> A little bit. There was active buying on
New Year's Day or New Year's Eve
afternoon. And while we were able to buy
a lot, we still sold a lot. So, the
showcases aren't quite full yet. The
Constitutional is doing a little better
as well. Got a bunch of dimes in. could
use some quarters, but all in all, we're
clawing our way back.
>> There's certainly a lot more silver in
here compared to last week when you guys
were sold out of pure silver at one
point.
>> Yeah, we were we were completely out.
Although, even later that morning after
you filmed, we were able to buy some. It
just it just doesn't stay.
>> So, there's a lot of people buying and
selling right now.
>> Yeah, depends on what the spot price
does. If the spot price is up, you know,
like it's been a couple of dollars, then
there's a lot of selling. Today, it's
kind of flat. So, not sure what to
expect, but perhaps it'd be a buying
opportunity. You know, people are buying
on the dips,
>> the smart stackers. Anyway,
>> the smart ones. Yes.
>> I got to say, uh, happy new year, Harry.
It is 2026. Finally.
>> 2026. I'll turn 70 this year. That's
weird, isn't it? [laughter]
>> And I'm noticing behind you, we've got
this. Cheers to 10 years.
>> Yeah, that's courtesy of Adrienne's
lovely wife. She's the only one who
remembered that it was today was 10
years that we're open. I actually didn't
even think about it. Just another
morning and uh trying to get things
going.
>> So the shop has been open 10 years
today.
>> 10 years today. January 2nd.
>> And uh how long have you been coming to
the shop, Adrian?
>> Oh, I've been coming here what? Since
since about then actually before I even
moved to Oregon. So I I was here right
after Harry opened.
>> Adrian used to work just a few blocks up
the street and um he would come every
single lunchtime every day. Finally, I
realized with some convincing from
Adrian that I'd be a lot better off if
he were on this side of the counter than
that side of the counter.
>> And it's really worked out
>> very, very well.
>> So, Harry, I looked up the price for
gold and silver when you opened the
shop. Gold was $1,074
an ounce,
>> right?
>> Silver was $13.98.
>> And still nobody came. [laughter] I
mean, back then we were telling
everyone, buy silver, buy gold, because
we knew something like this was going to
happen, and we're finally in the middle
of it.
>> Yeah, it took uh it took 10 years for
the real breakout to happen, but it has
slowly risen over the years, although it
was kind of stuck in the 20s in a in
kind of a channel for years, wouldn't
you say, Adrian?
>> And then, uh, it broke out of the 20s
and it's hasn't really looked back.
>> Yeah, $70 silver is kind of crazy. I
didn't think I'd be saying that this
soon. I mean, when you think about even
though the price has come down in the
last few days, it's pretty stable over
$70 right now. It seems to be a new
floor has solidified and it's there's
some resistance to going below 70 at
this point. Very impressive. And there's
not any one single thing of we as we've
talked about where you could say well
it's because this situation is happening
globally or because domestically this is
happening. This is happening organically
for its own reasons. And there's not one
thing that could change that's going to
change the trajectory of the metals, I
don't think.
>> Yeah, we have seen the COMX do a few
margin nukes. They did the biggest one
since, I believe, the 80s, a 30% rise
for silver futures just a few days ago.
And now we have China actually
restricting silver exports. Do you have
any thoughts on that? With China
restricting exports, it could create the
um impression anyway of shortages,
although I don't think there really is a
shortage right now. We can get all the
silver we want if we're willing to pay a
high price for it. So, it's not like
it's not available. It's just not
available at great prices.
>> What do you think about that, Adrian? Do
you think there's going to be a limited
supply of silver with China restricting
how much they send out of the country?
>> Well, yeah. I think I was looking at
that they they're going to control about
60 to 70% of the refined silver. So, um,
that's definitely going to put a
constraint on the market. That's what
I'm guessing. Um, but kind of what Harry
was saying is like if you want, if
you're willing to pay the prices, I'm
sure it'll be available.
>> So, maybe it would help push prices
higher.
>> I think so. I think it will because
it's, you know, it's being contained. I
mean, we see the price in Japan, we see
the price in China and then we look at
the price here in in the States and it's
like, you know, there's there's quite a
bit of a spread.
>> Maybe more than perception. There'll be
true scarcity. I mean shortages it's a
relative term but right now it's
available but you got to really really
pay up for it.
>> You know Harry let me ask you about the
gold. I'm looking at your showcase here.
There is zero gold in the showcase.
>> Yeah. Shockingly to all of us here I
think is that even at 4,300 plus the
premiums per ounce. You know we're up
over 4500 an ounce for say a gold eagle
or a buffalo and we cannot keep them in
stock. If we buy four or five they're
gone within the hour. Are you seeing an
influx of people wanting to sell silver
and buy gold?
>> I guess more more of the term would be
trade for it.
>> Sure.
>> Especially older people who want to
debulk their stack, have it more be more
portable. We've seen quite a bit of
that. That's fine. We're happy to do it.
>> I've heard from some people in the past
that when it comes time to trade your
silver for gold, there's not going to be
any gold out there. You guys can
obviously order more gold at your own
leisure.
>> We can and we have to fill some of those
trades. we've we've had to order for
several people in the last few days cuz
we just didn't have it in the showcase.
>> So, if someone wanted to come in today
and trade silver for gold and they look
down and they say, "Okay, there's
literally nothing here." They could do
it. They would just have to wait for it
to come in.
>> Yeah. And now that we're past the
holidays, if they order, say before
noon, typically we'd have it in three
business days.
>> I personally think it's still a little
too early to start trading a lot of
silver for gold. I mean, maybe 1 ounce
here or there, but I think the ratio
could come down a lot more in 2026.
>> I think so. I think honestly, I don't
know where the year is going to take us
the whole year, but I think a $100
silver in the first quarter is not out
of the question because we see jumps
every day now in the dollars. You know,
$2, $3, $4 in either direction. From a
percentage basis, we're not very far off
of a $100. Maybe a 30% rise, which would
be a fraction of last year's rise, would
push us right over $100 an ounce.
>> Yeah, we ended the year up 148% for
silver. So, it was a really good year.
>> Yeah. So, you figure, you know, a third
of that increase for the year. We're
into the hundreds.
>> Well, in 2025, you and Adrian both
predicted $42 silver and it got up to
72. It went above 80 at one point, so
who knows how high it could go this
year.
>> Well, it did get to 42. So, we were
right. It also got to 43 and 44 and 45.
So, it seemed like a stretch at the time
that we were going out going out on a
bit of a limb cuz I think we were still
in the 20s, weren't we?
>> Yeah, it was about $28.
>> Here's the thing. You know, it was 42
and 42. So, that came to the 84.
>> Oh, yeah. That's what it was.
>> We just had to combine them right there.
>> 84 Sunday. There it is.
>> There it is.
>> Yeah. [laughter] You guys are geniuses.
I just didn't do the math in my head.
>> I got to add it up, you know. Yeah.
>> Well, my guess for silver in 2025, I was
way off. It was in the 40s as well. But
for this year, 2026, I'm thinking silver
could go all the way up to $150 an
ounce. Do you think that's possible? I
think it's possible. Not in the first
quarter perhaps, but maybe in the
entirety of the year. Very possible. On
the other hand, let's say it went back
to 42. That'd be a buying opportunity
for the stackers out there who are
feeling like they missed out. So either
way, there's going to be a lot of action
here. The thing is though, as the higher
the price goes, there's a finite amount
of silver in the earth, but the higher
the price goes, the more it makes sense
for miners to go get the the hard to get
silver. And so, I don't think supply in
terms of mining is going to be a
problem. Maybe the finished refined
silver, as Adrian pointed out, is going
to be the real problem. But over time,
at these prices, it's worth going after
and digging it out. cuz I know there's
like a six to sevenyear deficit on on
silver that's being coming out of the
ground. So that that'll be interesting
to see. But you know with these prices
they're going to ramp up I think. And
>> meaning what like it we're behind in
just the mining.
>> Correct.
>> Okay.
>> And the amount of silver that comes out
of the ground. So it'll be interesting
to see. But with these prices I think
they're going to say hey look we need to
shorten that up and either get more
people working on this or or do
something. They're going to try and get
that money and realize those gains.
Well, one of the issues with silver
though is there aren't that many silver
mines out there. They're mostly copper
mines and gold mines. They're mining for
other things. So, if they were to start
a new silver mine, that takes like 5
years to really get into production.
>> Yeah. Yeah. It'd be interesting to see
what's going to happen here. But I think
with the pressure on the price of
silver, that's going to light some fire
under some people and say, "Hey, look,
let's let's get this stuff out of the
ground sooner or start something new or,
you know, it'll really spark some action
on silver." You know what I think is
worth uh talking about a little bit too
is that prior to 2025, I think in recent
years, people leaving the precious
metals to invest in cryptocurrencies
kind of hurt the market, the precious
metals market. And if you look at what
happened last year, the
cryptocurrencies, if I'm not mistaken,
actually went down a little bit versus
the metals, which went way up. So, I
think some of the people who had strayed
away from the metals and went to crypto
might be coming back. I mean, at those
comparisons, you know, silver up 160ome
percent and what was crypto down about
17%.
>> Yeah,
>> that could fuel excitement into the
early part of this new year for people
coming back into the precious metals. If
we make our way down to this side of the
case, we've got all these wonderful
cupcakes. Your wife is always bringing
in the treats, Adrian.
>> Sure is. And uh she treats as well.
>> Down here, you guys have a libertad in
the case, and it's pretty rare that we
have one in the shop. I gotta ask you,
is this going for the same price as the
other government ounces?
>> It sure is. Yeah. I mean, we got a
stray, you know, so we're like, "Hey,
throw it in there."
>> I like that. [laughter] It's a stray.
>> Yeah. We have a nice little assortment
of world coins here. And it's nice to
see silver back in the shop. I mean,
last week when you guys were pretty much
sold out. It was a little bit depressing
to be honest.
>> Yeah. You know, it's like we wish we we
had, you know, tons and tons of it to
sell, but I mean, we do have tons of it
to sell. It's just it was going in a
really fast pace. And it was fun to see
people, you know, excited about silver.
This is fun. You know, this is what it's
about. Premiums on a lot of this stuff
have just disappeared. I mean, we've got
a Libertad there for the price of a
regular government ounce.
>> Yeah, that's really cool to see. And I
got to say, uh, happy new year to Bill.
What's up, Bill?
>> Happy New Year, Dragon.
>> It's good to see you. And I want to get
your thoughts on silver and gold for
2026. Do you want to make any type of a
prediction for the medals this year?
>> Well, it certainly passed my
expectations in 2025. I think most
people can say that other than I suppose
there were people of course on the
internet saying it's going to go to 100
and they got most of their wish right
you know seven out of 10's not bad. I
think there's a lot of um you know black
swans that could happen you know in the
macroeconomic and and geopolitical world
that would uh you know either help or
derail this rally but I think we're
still in the rally.
>> So there I think my prediction is that
it'll be higher at the end of 2026 than
it is at the end of 2025. I'd be curious
to read uh in the comments section after
this video. You've heard our
predictions. I'd love to see what the
audience thinks where silver's going.
And I'd also like to see since this is a
traditional time to set goals, what your
personal goals are for your stack. How
much do you want to add to your stack
this year? Or maybe how much do you want
to sell of your stack or maybe trade for
some other metal that you don't have?
I'd just be very interested in what
other people's uh mindset is on the
current situation.
>> That's a great thought, Harry. So,
everyone feel free to comment if you
have any goals for 2026 down below in
the comment section and maybe next year
we'll have to check back in and see if
you did it.
>> If I can add to what Harry said, things
that get measured get improved. And so,
we set a goal in 2025 that we hit and uh
if you set a stacking goal, you're more
likely to hit it than if you're just
doing randomly, you know, and uh you
know, some people go down to the
nitty-gritty of
>> Say that again. That was a great
expression. Things that get measured.
>> Things that get measured get improved.
>> Get improved. I like that. Unless it's
in writing, you know, it's just a wish.
So, make sure you write down your goals
and kind of like what Bill said, it's
like you got to measure these things and
and go for it.
>> One last thing, Harry, before I go.
Congratulations on 10 years at the coin
shop. That's a big deal.
>> That went fast. When you open a shop at
59, it goes fast.
>> Yeah.
>> I suggest you do it sooner.
>> Well, I look forward to the next 10
years. Sanctuary good wishes.