From Potato Seeds to Space‑Based AI: A Deep Dive into the All‑In Podcast Episode

Name: Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
Uploaded: 2026-02-13T12:27:52.345072+00:00
Channel: All-In Podcast
Description: Summary and key takeaways on From Potato Seeds to Space‑Based AI: A Deep Dive into the All‑In Podcast Episode, covering Introduction The episode kicks off with
All-In Podcast
Feb 13, 2026
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4 min read
YouTube video ID: wTiHheA40nI
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Introduction

The episode kicks off with the usual banter among the hosts—Brad Gersonner, David Saxs, and David Freeberg—while noting Shabbath’s absence. Brad celebrates the launch of the "Trump accounts" initiative, a program designed to give every American child a $1,000 investment starter.
Oh: The New Potato Seed Startup

Archaeological Inspiration: The company is named after a 26,000‑year‑old site where ancient clay pots with seeds were found, reshaping our view of early agriculture.
True Potato Seed: Oh is commercializing the world’s first true potato seed, allowing farmers to plant a handful of seed instead of thousands of pounds of cut potatoes. This could dramatically lower costs for the third‑largest global calorie source.
Investment Angle: Brad and the hosts discuss their involvement with Craft Ventures and the potential for a small equity slice.
Epstein Files Transparency Act

Recent DOJ Release: Hundreds of documents mention high‑profile tech executives, including the hosts themselves.
Brad’s Interaction: He met Jeffrey Epstein once in the late 1990s at a TED billionaire dinner and never visited Epstein’s island or saw any illicit activity.
Ghislaine Maxwell: Brad also met her socially at TED events; he denies any knowledge of wrongdoing.
Broader Implications: The conversation touches on why certain powerful figures (e.g., Reed Hoffman, Bill Gates) receive minimal scrutiny while others are heavily targeted, highlighting public distrust in institutions.
SaaS Crash & AI‑Driven Disruption

Market Shock: $300 billion was wiped from the S&P software & data sector in a single day, dubbed the "Claude crash."
AI Co‑Work Tools: Anthropic’s Claude Co‑work adds legal‑drafting automation, illustrating how AI plugins can replace niche SaaS functions.
Valuation Shifts: Companies like Salesforce, Figma, and Adobe see free‑cash‑flow multiples halve as investors discount future AI uncertainty.
Future of SaaS: Experts argue SaaS won’t disappear but will become a legacy layer beneath a new "agentic" stack that aggregates data across tools. Open‑source agents (OpenClaw) and platforms like Moltbook enable AI agents to collaborate, automate tasks, and potentially reshape pricing toward value‑based models.
The Rise of Autonomous Agents

OpenClaw & Moltbook: OpenClaw (formerly ClawedBot) is an open‑source agent framework; Moltbook is a Reddit‑style forum where agents share skills.
Emergent Behavior: Posts on Moltbook hint at agents developing their own language and coordinating actions, raising safety and security concerns.
Recursive Prompting: Agents can generate prompts for other agents, creating a feedback loop that accelerates capability.
Security Risks: Exposed API keys could grant agents access to corporate data (Gmail, Notion, Slack), underscoring the need for robust safeguards.
Federal Reserve Leadership Change

Kevin Worsh Nomination: President Trump nominates the 55‑year‑old former Fed governor, known for hawkish, pro‑growth, AI‑friendly views.
Market Reaction: Gold and silver prices dip; investors anticipate tighter monetary policy but also expect Worsh to recognize AI’s deflationary potential.
Policy Outlook: Discussion of quantitative tightening, balance‑sheet reduction, and the importance of real‑time data (e.g., using Zillow instead of outdated surveys) for inflation measurement.
SpaceX‑XAI Merger

Deal Overview: Elon Musk merges SpaceX with X.AI (formerly Twitter’s AI arm) in a $1.25 trillion‑valued transaction.
Strategic Vision: Combining space infrastructure with AI compute aims to build orbital data centers, alleviating Earth’s power constraints.
Industry Ripple Effects: Competitors will likely focus on chip efficiency, model architecture, and energy‑per‑token improvements to stay competitive.
Social Implications: Massive productivity gains could outpace societal adaptation, raising concerns about social order and wealth distribution.
Trump Accounts & the Invest America Act

Program Mechanics: Every child born in the U.S. receives a $1,000 S&P 500‑linked account, plus exposure to companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Nvidia.
Economic Rationale: Aimed at bridging the wealth gap, fostering capitalism, and countering socialist narratives.
Early Adoption: Over 1.5 million families have already claimed accounts, embedding the initiative into the tax‑filing system.
Long‑Term Vision: Projected $4 trillion transferred to 75‑100 million families over the next 15‑20 years, creating a new social contract.
Closing Thoughts

The hosts emphasize the need for intellectual humility amid rapid technological change, urging listeners—especially younger professionals—to adopt AI tools (OpenClaw, Ultron) to stay employable. They also celebrate Brad’s role in launching the Trump accounts as a legacy‑defining achievement.
This episode weaves together agriculture innovation, the fallout from the Epstein files, a seismic SaaS market correction, the emergence of autonomous AI agents, a pivotal Fed leadership shift, and Elon Musk’s audacious SpaceX‑XAI merger—all underscored by a bold policy experiment that gives every American child a stake in the future. The overarching message: adapt quickly, embrace AI tools, and recognize that the next wave of wealth creation will belong to those who can harness both software and space‑based compute.
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Full Transcript YouTube

All right, everybody. Welcome back to
the number one podcast in the world.
Your favorite podcast with your favorite
besties in the world, the All-In
podcast. Shabbath is traveling and
couldn't make it this week. So, our
favorite fifth bestie in the world, the
one, the only Brad Gersonner from
Alimter here to take a victory lap for
your uh Trump accounts. Congratulations,
brother.
>> Just getting started. Started here,
actually. Look forward to
>> Yeah. Yeah, we'll talk about it in
depth. And also with us from the great
state of Texas, my bestie and brother in
arms, David Saxs. How are you doing? How
you how you You're loving it, aren't
you? Freedom.
>> Loving it.
>> Yeah.
>> So much freedom.
>> Well, the ice storm is over and the
weather looks really good right now.
We're going to have 70s all weekend.
It's great.
>> Yeah. You figured out your internet.
>> That has been resolved. Like I said,
it's a lot easier to fix my internet
than to fix the state of California.
>> You fixed it in one week. So, yeah, I
would say that you're trending in the
right direction. And with us, of course,
David Freeberg of Oh. How are you doing,
oh, look at your little promo in your
hat. You're promoing with the hat. How's
Oh, we haven't heard about it for a
while.
>> I'll give you some updates on another
show. Today may not be the best day. I
do appreciate you asking.
>> I hear it's going great with the
potatoes.
>> You got the merch. I got merch. Yeah,
you guys can go to boosted.oh.com
and buy your gear today. Oh,
>> here's your quick science corner for the
day. They found a village called the Oh
site. It was an archaeological dig on
the Sea of Galilee, 26,000 years old.
And in this archaeological dig, they
found these little clay pots filled with
seed. So, it predated all of our
understanding of agriculture and plant
breeding and seed storage. So, it really
reinvented our understanding of of human
history with agriculture. So we named
the company Oh after that archaeological
site
>> and your first crop is going to be
potatoes. That's the poly market is
saying potatoes.
>> Farmers are planting our true seed.
World's first world's first true seed of
potato. Instead of planting 5,000 lbs of
chopped up potatoes, you plant a handful
of seed. Completely changes the
economics and the opportunity for potato
farmers around the world. Third largest
source of calories. Very excited. We're
going to market this spring. Farmers are
planting it in the field. So, it's a
great year for Oh. Thanks for asking.
>> So, first
>> invest in Oh, Jason.
>> I think Sax and I have 0.0. Yeah, I
think Besty's got boxed out on this, but
we'll promote it every week.
>> Sax is there, bro.
>> Oh, Sax is no comment. Sax got his beak
with Are you in Oh, or not?
>> I think we are investors, are we not?
>> Yeah, his his venture firm, Craft
Ventures. We're excited to have them on
the cap table. Yeah.
>> Oh, great. How about you, Brad? Did you
get a little slice?
>> I'm working on it. I'm working on it,
too. Let me know how it goes. If you can
ever find the founder and see if we can
get a little slice for Jake, I'd like to
slide a millie in there.
>> If you write a personal check, I'll let
you in right now.
>> Sure. Okay. I mean, the problem with
that is if if I write a personal check.
>> Never mind.
>> No, I I have to go to my LPs and then
get permission to do it. And then you're
going to crush it and then my LPs are
going to say, "Why isn't in the fund?"
So, that's the problem.
>> All right. Let's get going here. We got
a lot of news to get through. Epstein
files newest drop. DOJ published a
massive number of documents on Friday,
January 30th, under the Epstein Files
Transparency Act. Hundreds of
high-profile tech executives and
national figures were mentioned in the
files. Of course, none of those are
accused of any criminal wrongdoing.
>> Jal, you were in the files.
>> Yes, I have a couple of emails in the
files. Okay, Inspector Friedberg has a
few questions for you. Okay. Okay, let's
get started.
>> When did you first meet Jeffrey Epste?
>> I met Jeffrey Epstein in the late 90s at
the TED conference at specifically the
billionaires dinner which was hosted by
my book agent John Brockman.
>> And then did you see him in New York?
Did you visit him at his house or his
office or anywhere else in New York?
>> I've probably spoken to him for 45
minutes of my life. 30 minutes of that
was in the late 90s when I had Silicon
Valley Reporter magazine. He was a
billionaire financeier and he wanted to
invest in the magazine. I met with him
for 30 minutes which he said was too
small potatoes for him to be involved.
>> Where did you meet with him?
>> At his legendary town home.
>> You went to that house?
>> I visited him there and then I saw him
at the TED conferences at the
billionaire's dinner probably a half
dozen times.
>> You never went to the island?
>> I never went to the island. Was never
invited to the island. Was never invited
on the plane. Was never invited to the
ranch. None of that. When you went to
his house, did you see any young ladies
or did you see any of the stuff that's
reported?
>> No.
>> Did you ever get a massage from anyone?
>> No. No. I did trade an email with him,
which I didn't recall, but he in 2011
emailed me and said, "Hey, can you
introduce me to these people who were
doing this Bitcoin thing on your
podcast?" And I said, "Sure. Yeah, here
you go. I'll uh introduce you." I do
thousands of introductions a year
between our portfolio companies, people
on this weekend, startups, and
billionaires and financers. That's the
job of an early stage investor. Why did
you say hey pal in your email to him?
>> That's just a colloquialism I use like
as a general hey fella. If a fan comes
up to me and ask for a sub hey pal
thanks for saying that.
>> It wasn't on your radar that this is a
sexual predator etc.
>> Absolutely not. I think actually when
all that came out was 2018. That's when
I sort of became aware of it. There was
like a Miami Herald story or something
where they went into detail about how
heinous all this stuff was. I've been
saying here release all the Epstein
files. what he did was horrible.
>> Prosecute everybody 100% who was
involved in it. The end.
>> What about Gileain Maxwell? You had a
separate email that came out in the
Epste files with her.
>> I had met her as well at TED and I had
met her socially like in New York in
circles. When I met her, her dad, Robert
Maxwell owned, I believe the New York
Post or Daily News and she was a big
media executive and her sister was
involved in angel investing in
technology startups. So, they were just
in the scene. I think in hindsight, you
know, as a connector, if you ever seen
The New Yorker, Nick, you can throw up
the New Yorker story about me. I had
become famous in the first part of my
career as the connector. And the New
Yorker wrote like this 5,000word article
about how I knew everybody and was
connecting everybody. I think Epstein's
interest in me, if he had any interest
in me or Gilain, was in my ability to
connect high-profile people with them
and, you know, their business endeavors,
etc. So you had no knowledge of illicit
activities happening by Epstein or
Galain and you never participated in
any?
>> Absolutely not. Unequivocably not. I was
not involved in any shenanigans. Period.
Full stop.
>> Any more questions for the witness?
>> Well, let me make a a few observations
here. So, first of all, I 100% believe
Jay Cal. As I joked at our roast, he's
not an important enough player in the
grand scheme of things. You know, as I
joked, I said, "Who'd want to blackmail
a loser?" You know, obviously you're not
a loser, Jal, but uh but look, you you
were
>> well taken. Yeah.
>> We're learning from the Epstein files
that Epstein was some sort of hyper
networker. You were a connector. The
odds of the two of you coming across
each other in that time period was
basically 100%. But your contacts were
very minor. So that's point number one.
Now, I thought it was interesting, you
know, cuz I saw the the emails where
he's asking you for an introduction. The
fact that he was curious to meet the
quote unquote Bitcoin guys in 2011, I
thought was kind of interesting in and
of itself that, you know, whatever other
things Epstein was, he clearly had some
sort of nose for putting himself in the
middle of everything at a very early
stage.
>> I also thought it was interesting that
you were trying to warn Epste like crazy
Bitcoin guys, you know, like these are
some crazy crypto libertarians, you
know, you don't want to do business with
them or whatever. Anyway,
>> well, I It's interesting you point that
out because I had these guys on this
week in startups because I had heard
about Bitcoin early when it was like a
under a dollar. And I was like, "Yeah,
these guys are kind of weird. They're
not like entrepreneurs who want to raise
money. They're a foundation. They're
like Wikipedia and you you're not going
to be able to invest in it." I sort of
gave him that warning because I had
looked at like, "Hey, what are you guys
working on? Can you invest in the
Bitcoin project?" They're like, "No, no,
it's a nonprofit. It's it's a nobody
owns it." And I was like, "Oh, okay.
It's not even a nonprofit. Nobody owns
it." Yeah. basically. Yeah.
>> But anyway, it's just interesting that
he he obviously wasn't deterred by what
you said. He got very involved, I guess.
And there was a company called
Blockstream that he invested in along
with Reed Hoffman and and Joyo that
involves some of the Bitcoin core
developers. And again, this is all
coming out. Now, shifting gears,
>> I think another interesting part of this
is just how this is all being covered.
And there was an article in the New York
Times today talking about Epstein's
connections to Silicon Valley. And lo
and behold, you have a major photo there
despite I think your minor minor
tangential connection here.
>> And meanwhile, the people who have major
connections and a deeper relationship to
Epstein are being completely ignored.
>> H why is that? Why are they going after
me as opposed to Reed or
>> because you've become sort of rightcoded
by virtue of your association with Elon
and and being on this podcast. And so,
>> and you
>> and me and so you look in that article,
it's not just you. They really go after
Peter Teal. They go after Elon. But Reed
gets a total pass. I mean, he's just
mentioned
>> in a sentence with several other names.
So does Bill Gates in this particular
article, by the way,
>> which seemed to be, by the way, if you
were thinking of who had the most
contact with him for the longest
duration of time, it was Gates and Reed.
like they were involved with him up
until I don't know his death maybe or
2018 2019 they were on the island they
were on the plane they were at the ranch
they were very much involved in him to
and I know Joeyto was in it to raise
money from Epstein because Epstein was
this big funer of scientists which
looking back on its he's involved in
Bitcoin he's involved in physics and
scientists he's involved with the
world's most innovative tech leaders
what exactly is going on here? Like what
who is he working for? Do you think he
was a spy? I wonder what you've come to
think or an asset.
>> I don't have any more information than
anybody else does about this and I
haven't gone through all the Epstein
files. I've just seen the ones that have
been surfaced by other people tweeting
about them and that sort of thing. My
impression is that he clearly had
relationships with people in
intelligence, but I don't know whether
he was actually an asset. People use
this term that he was being run by
somebody. It seems to me that this guy
is kind of running himself and then he's
using lots of other people and
manipulating lots of other people and
putting himself in the center of a lot
of things.
>> And so is he working with intelligence?
Yes, certainly. It seems that way. But
is he working for them or are they being
put to use by him? Very hard to tell.
>> Yeah. You know, I not that I have a lot
to add here, but man, this guy's just a
scumbag, you know, and all of this
nonsense. It's totally tragic, but
David, this is why nobody trusts
institutions or powerful elites or any
of this garbage,
>> right? Like, it's the this thing is like
trickling out over years and people like
want to put it behind it, but you can't.
Nobody's been charged here. What about
all the, you know, all the people in the
emails? like why don't we see any
charges? And then girly tweets this week
and I totally agree. This guy's under
complete surveillance, suicide watch in
a little tiny jail cell and all of a
sudden the guy ends up dead. We have no
investigation as to how this guy dies.
>> Yeah.
>> Right. It just seems to me that this is
the type of that undermines trust
in institutions, that undermines trust
in all the people who are listed here
because literally from Peter Aia to Bill
Gates, the people that many across the
country looked up to for advice on key
things. All of a sudden, they're saying
stuff that just undermines credibility.
>> And how come the 30 people or whatever
the number is who were investigated
alongside him have not been prosecuted?
Like that's the thing that's crazy to
me. that screams of some weird
conspiracy here. And I do think his
death is obviously, you know, very
suspicious.
>> But do you do you think it's because
they didn't find evidence of all the
underage prostitution, sex trafficking?
Is that Do you think that it's actually
the case they didn't find evidence about
any of that sort of stuff? The thing
that came out eventually was that his
nonprosecution agreement, and I'm I'm
not an expert on it, that he did with
the Miami group included like all the
other people also couldn't be prosecuted
for it. So, there's something fishy
going on and I think people should
reinvestigate his charges and that whole
thing. And where's the FBI in all of
this? Like, they did a lot of
investigating. So, yeah, why didn't they
prosecute anybody else? It's very
strange.
>> Can I ask you guys a question? because
this revealed a lot of very private
communication in a very public way of
what Brad points out are very public
powerful people. There is this great
book, I've mentioned it in the past, by
Steven Baxter and Arthur Clark called
the light of other days and it's all
about how basically all the world's
information becomes available to
everyone. Like what if you could read
every other person's text, email, IM, DM
that they've ever had with everyone else
in the world? What would the world look
like? And it's very kind of intimately
revealing about people's quiet private
conversations versus their public
personas or their external
conversations. Is this just like hey
people feel entitled to act so
maliciously and deviously in in one
sense because they're wealthy because
they're powerful and that's a very
unique thing for wealthy and powerful
people.
>> I think it's too dismissive of people
for their scumbag behavior. David, it
the fact of the matter is people don't
do this. This isn't normal. We can't
normalize it. And worse yet, the level
of hypocrisy
that the very people that are acting the
worst are out there lecturing others uh
throughout this entire period of time.
And I will say this, you know, to the to
the ear of my sister or mother in rural
Indiana. They hear the coastal elites
lecturing them all the time and then
they have they juxtapose it against what
they read in the Epstein files. This is
why we have a lack of trust. Brad, you
speak about the corruption of power
centers. I think a major one has to be
the New York Times. The number one
person in the Epstein files from Silicon
Valley, which is Reed Hoffman mentioned
2,600 times, had a multi-year
relationship with Epstein. They call
each other very good friends. They did
deals together. Reed stayed at the
trifecta, which is not just the island,
but the townhouse and the New Mexico
ranch. And if you're going to write
about Silicon Valley, Reed was the one
who introduced Epstein to Peter Teal and
Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg organized
that famous dinner. How can you not
mention that as the root of Epstein's
involvement in Silicon Valley and yet
read this gets a mention in one sentence
of that article along with several other
people? It's crazy. I mean, the New York
Times clearly has a list of people they
consider approved targets. They're all
rightcoded people like Elon or Peter
Teal and even JCAL because of his
association with us, I guess, and they
become the targets. But the people
who've donated hundreds of millions of
dollars to the Democrat party and have
paid for dirty tricks against Trump,
they basically are spared. Honestly,
this is just emblematic of the whole
institutional rot and the distrust in
the country, right? They're part of the
cabal. It's part of the institutions
that people are losing faith in. You
know, Epstein was a scumbag. And the
fact of the matter is we're not seeing
equal play on both sides.
>> All right, let's keep moving. SAS
companies are crashing out. $300 billion
of value was wiped from the S&P
Tuesday in the software and data stocks
category. Uh people are calling this the
Claude crash. I don't know if I buy
that, but on Monday, Anthropic, which
has been on a bit of a heater as we
talked about, announced that they added
a legal tool to Claude Co-work. If you
don't know what Claude co-work is
called, this is different than the
Claudebot that we talked about last
week. This is a essentially what uh
Claude code or a coding agent is. This
is for knowledge workers to automate
work and do multi-step instead of just
asking you a query to a large language
model, it would do a number of actual
actions on your behalf that you can
automate and run as cron jobs, as
regular jobs every day, every hour,
every week, whatever it happens to be.
This one specifically is kind of like a
plugin that allows you to do tasks uh
related to legal drafts and research.
What that meant to I guess retail
investors and we'll get into this Brad
since this is your specialtity is that a
lot of legal tech startups and uh public
companies were hit hard. Thompson
Reuters down 20%. Lexus Nexus which is a
database of case law uh was down 15%.
Legal Zoom which gives legal advice um
and documents down 15%. At the same
time, SAS uh has continued to be
negatively impacted by this concept that
uh software will be made bespoke in uh
tools and be wiped out. Figma down 13%,
Salesforce 11, Service Now 11, Adobe 8%.
And even before Tuesday's drop, and you
can get into this, Brad, software was
already the worst performing S&P sub
section for the year.
>> By the way, the numbers you report are
dramatic understatement. We we've wiped
out trillions of dollars in market cap.
Figma's down 80% from the high. Uh you
know, all the big names.
>> Let me be clear. Those were two-day
numbers. That was this week since these
are two-day numbers. And that's Yeah,
you can give us the bigger picture.
>> This is this is a real train wreck. And
I was on CNBC at the start of the year,
I think on January 6. Nick can can kind
of pull that up. And I was asked the
question, you know, what do you think
about all these stocks being down? And I
said, listen, they're all down and 90%
of them deserve to be down. So, let's
look at these charts. Uh, David, I know
this is Sachs, this is your favorite
chart. You and I were looking back in
22, but now we're at an all-time low.
We're we're trading at 3.9 times forward
revenue. If you go to the next chart,
Nick, you know, on a free cash flow
multiple, also at an all-time low. So,
now software is trading not just at a
low on revenue, but it's trading at a
low on free cash. Very profitable
businesses. We've got a another slide
here that I think is important which is
you know when when you look at what why
they're going down right they're going
down and this this is for Salesforce it
shows it's been cut in half in the last
couple weeks but the final slide they're
going down not because revenue is
falling look at this revenue is actually
stable to increasing for software
companies revenue growth they're going
down because we're discounting that
future uncertainty When something as
profound as AI comes along,
all of a sudden it causes you to
question whether or not there's as much
certainty and durability in those future
free cash flows. So in the case of take
Salesforce, it's gone from 30 times free
cash flow multiple to 15 times. That
means somebody buying it today says
listen, I think 15 years into the
future, I can count on these free cash
flows. Right? Before they were willing
to pay 30 years into the future. Well,
hell, with AI today, we don't know
what's going to happen seven years into
the future. So, for people at home to
understand why are these companies
hitting their numbers, but their stocks
are going down, they're two totally
different things, right?
>> Okay. So, they're hitting their numbers,
but the headwind of AI means people
don't believe that they'll be strong in
the future. Sax, those
>> Well, okay. I mean, I think there's a
little bit of a handwave going on here
when people say that AI is going to wipe
out SAS. I I don't think that's true.
You take a SAS product like Salesforce,
right? It's a very large system that
deals with all of your customer contacts
and your revenue. You're not going to
want to replace that with code that's
just been spit out of a coding assistant
that hasn't been fully vetted. Think
about how many bug reports have been
filed on Salesforce's codebase over the
last 25 years, maybe millions of them.
That system has been tested across
thousands of large customers and
enterprises. The idea that you're just
going to rip out that system and replace
it with code that's been
probabilistically generated by an AI
engine yesterday with a small team to
maintain it internally just doesn't seem
realistic to me. So again, I think this
like very dire prediction of all SAS is
dead is overstated. However, I do think
that there are some issues here. So, if
you're a SAS product that charges a lot
of money and people only use a handful
of your features, then you are, I think,
a target to be ripped out with something
that's more bespoke, right? Because the
ROI just isn't there. I also think that
you have to be really clear about what
your moes are going to be in this new
world because it is a lot easier to
generate code and to copy. So, if you
don't have good moes, then you could be
in trouble. But here's where I think the
greatest threat is to the SAS companies.
It's not in my view their existence. I
don't think it's existential. It's where
the future value capture is going to be.
So let me give you an example. All these
SAS products are rolling out like AI
co-pilots inside their tools and some of
them work pretty well, but they're
limited to playing in that sandbox.
Whereas you look at something like
Claude Co-work right now, it has
connectors to all these different SAS
tools. It can pull in data across all
these different tools and it works
seamlessly across databases and tools
and that's a pretty attractive place to
be, right? Like you know which one of
these products is going to be your
workspace? Seems to me that you're going
to want your workspace to be the one
that spans across and gives you AI
across the most data and context as
opposed to having a bunch of separate
AIs inside of your existing tools. So I
think the risk for the SAS companies,
it's not that they get replaced,
although that'll happen to some degree,
but it's that they become an old layer
of the stack that now there's a new
layer that gets built on top of it
becomes more legacy infrastructure
>> and all the action kind of moves to a
new layer of the stack and that's where
the value ad happens and if that happens
it kind of cuts into their future
opportunity, right? because a lot of
these companies were banking on AI as
their next you look at their product
road maps right it's all AI related so
that to me I think is the big risk is
that the value capture
>> for the next layer of the stack happens
somewhere else
>> yeah I'm experiencing this in startup
land where people go to the action as
you called it sachs the most productive
thing you can do is create an open claw
which used to be called clawed bot not
by Anthropic. This is the open source
project I talked about last week. And
we've actually now created like three or
four of these Asian sacks. We've bought
the Mac Studios and we're now running
Kimmy on some of them. And we uh had to
open up SAS accounts for these four
agents. So, actually our SAS spend went
up in the short to midterm because we
opened up four more Slack ex, you know,
uh enterprise versions, four more
notion, uh four more Google Docs. So,
it's almost like we added four
employees. However, we now have put
about 20 or 30% of the work people were
doing into these agents. And I think
it's going to be sustainable that every
month we move 10 to 20% of work being
done by humans into agents. But we will
never use the ones that are built into
the tools. To your point, Saxs, using
Notion's AI tool, it's nice. Using
Slacks, it's also very nice. And
Google's got Gemini everywhere in the
top righthand corner. But when you make
agents with OpenClaw and you have them
saying, "Hey, pull this data from my
calendar, send an email to this person,
include in that some notion documents."
It's unbelievable how powerful it is.
So, and that I think is going to be
owned by open source. That means
>> the next generation of companies, they
may never open up these accounts. They
may use more bespoke software and it may
all technology is deflationary. We know
that.
>> So your SAS spend might go from 10% of
an employes salary down to 5% down to
1%. That's what I think the trend will
be which means these companies are going
to need to really downsize their expense
base in order to keep those earnings up
and they're going to have to evolve
their products massively. Their products
are just going to have to provide more
value and more hooks. Freeberg, you have
any thoughts on this?
>> Respond to one thing. So I think one of
the real conundrums
for SAS companies is whether they're
going to be open data or closed data. I
think Bill Gurley has sort of coined
this this term. So it's not open source
or closed sources anymore. It's open
data or closed data. You can see why
they'd want to be closed data, right?
Especially if you're a large suite like
Salesforce, you can lay claim to being
that workspace for AI. You've got enough
of the tools, you got enough of a suite,
you want to provide that, you want to
capture that AI value layer. Yes,
>> but still if there's someone using
Cloudbot or whatever the next generation
of Quadbots are going to be and they're
connected to everything else, then that
is going to create a friction in the
enterprise and it will create room for a
competitor to come along and say, "No,
no, no. I'm open data. I'm okay not
being your workspace for everything. I'm
willing to just provide the CRM
database." and maybe they can take
business on that basis.
>> Well, here here's I want to build on
that Sax the I'm building a project
internally called Ultron and Ultron
inside of my firm launch that is going
to basically with the Slack API we're
pulling every single message from Slack
into our OpenClaw. We're pulling every
single edit to the notion into openclaw
and then we're taking every skill of
every employee and we're writing skills
for each one. One of the skills is
booking guests on this weekend startups
or this weekend. One of the skills is
sorting the incoming applications to
found university. Ultron in our world is
taking every single skill of every
employee putting it in one place and
then we're ripping all the data from
Slack, all the data from notion and
every single person's Gmail. So your
every single employees Gmail is going to
go into Ultron and then Ultron is going
to tell us what's happening in the
organization. One giant employee that
has the superpowers of all 20 and all
the data. Now if Slack was to say to us
or Notion or Google Docs or whoever it
was, you can't pull this stuff out with
the API and they they shut down the API,
we would leave. We'd leave immediately.
Right.
>> And and what this is going to do, and
I'm going to show Ultron on Friday's
episode of This Week in Startups, if
anybody wants to see it. Ultron is going
to be the one canonical employee of the
organization. It's going to be basically
me and all 20 of my employees. This is
kind of mind-blowing when you think
about it. I And we interface with it in
Slack and it just talks to us and tells
us what's going on in the organization.
So, I was asking it, what meetings did
we have with founders yesterday? and
tell me the notes that all the
associates took on it and it gives it to
me. Tell me all the topics and the
guests on the podcast and it gives it to
me. It's really unbelievable what's
about to happen and nobody can release
the software, Brad, because if you
release software that allows agents to
go and do things on your behalf, the
fallout if it up and if it leaks data, I
don't think Beni off, you know, or
Sergey or the notion team want to have
that on their hands. But we're building
it like this is the ultimate in
efficiency for an organization.
>> There's a slide that I just sent to Nick
uh that Goldman's out with this week
that really makes the point that that
David Saxs just made, which is the
profit pools in the future, right? It's
not that it's the idea that software is
dead is ridiculous, right? Nobody's, you
know, intelligently, I think, making
that argument. But the argument they are
making which is causing radical um
devaluation of these companies is that
the profit pool available to software is
decreasing and the profit pool available
to the agentic layer is increasing. And
when that happens the discount rate that
terminal value of those software
companies plummets and so you can have
things that are true. It could be true
that you're not going to replace CRM,
but it can also be true that it's never
going to trade at 30 times free cash
flow again
>> and it's going to trade at 17 times free
cash flow because it's available TAM in
the future is now dramatically and
permanently changed. Now, what could
change that? There's only one thing that
could change that. They have to
accelerate their revenue growth in their
core business and prove that they are AI
beneficiaries, right? And they're not
going to get eaten away by AI. And I'll
tell you a company that is doing this.
Data Bricks. Data Bricks just
reacelerated the last three quarters.
They're growing over 60% at scale.
Snowflake reacelerating. Click House
reacelerating. There are beneficiaries
in the software space.
>> Is that because of AI tools that they're
adding?
>> Absolutely. Because it's all these AI
tools rely on data and data
transformation. And for all those
companies that data and the data
transformation in occurs in those
platforms that's very different than a
what Satcha said a thin application
layer sitting on top of a CRUD database.
If you are in the application software
business you better have something
that's durable and I think Sax laid it
out really well. You know it's really
hard for them to be everything AI when
they only have access to their data and
they can't access these other systems.
>> Freeberg what what do you think? Is
there a move here for Ben off to do what
he does best, which is acquire a bunch
of companies and and create massive
efficiency on them? What would you do if
you're a Beni off?
>> Um I won't comment on Beni off. I I I'll
I'll just make a view on uh without
being too prescriptive, but I
my experience lately
in just the last 60 to 90 days with the
tools we've been talking about broadly
is there are things that we can get done
now that we could not get done before.
As I think about software in the past,
it's like worker productivity
enhancement. It helps people do work and
the recent transition that a lot of
people talk about is like it actually
completes the work. It does the work
these agents or what have you. But I
think that what we're starting to lean
into is that it's doing the work that
the humans can't do.
And that's really where I think the
power of these tools starts to force a
transition in both the pricing model and
the value creation potential in front of
us. Number one, I think the value
creation potential in front of us is so
significant that I would say that you
could probably take the sum of the
market cap of all the software companies
today and have a pretty good bet that
everything will be four to 10x higher 5
years from now,
but it's going to be not evenly
distributed.
>> It's going to move around.
>> Yeah.
>> The companies that figure out how to
realize that value creation are going to
be outsized returns. But the second
thing that I think's about to happen and
I know some people are experimenting
with it but I think it's inevitable with
the shift that I'm seeing where it's
going from doing work to completing work
to doing things that no one can do is
over here you're creating unique value.
And so I think that a lot of what we
call SAS today and a lot of what we call
software today will start to get priced
on a valuebased pricing model instead of
a per se pricing model. And I think it
starts to look a lot more like a
services type business where maybe the
pricing is set up such that this thing
will be completed for your business.
This biotech drug discovery will happen.
This factory will get built or this
engineering project will get completed
or this airplane will get designed and
that the software is going to provide
what has historically been called a
services business. So another way to
think about where SAS evolves to is that
SAS basically takes over the services
economy. And if you look at the market
cap and the revenue and profit generated
by services businesses and you assume
that they now go to 10 to 100x larger
and they're all going to acrue to
software, I think that's really where
the industry shifts over the next couple
of years. And we're starting to see
that. And I'm personally experiencing it
because I'm using some of these tools
today to do things that I don't have
people to do or I don't have resources
to do. and it can on my own I can get it
to complete incredibly complex projects
and tasks for me that I would have
otherwise have hired a services firm and
a bunch of people and years of research
and in many cases they would not have
even been able to do it because of the
the intelligence embedded in the
software. So that's my general view on
where things are going. So it's
difficult to be prescriptive about what
Beniops should do from an M&A
perspective. But I think it's much more
about like software companies looking
more like services companies doing value
based pricing and doing the things that
labor and workforces can't do. And
that's where a lot of this value is
going to come from.
>> I I one insight I have here to to build
on your point is that we're seeing job
functions consolidate. So you have a
product manager, the UX designer, and
then you have the developer. Those three
jobs are now in competition to do the
same work. You have designers who are
like, I can vibe code it. You've got
coders who are like I can use a Figma
plugin for you know and do the uh UX
myself and they have the product
managers like I can do both of these job
functions. Then you look at a middle
manager Sachs that worked at your
venture firm, my venture firm or worked
at Amazon. They went to meetings. They
picked what meetings to create. They
picked the agenda items, the to-do
items. All of that it's a really simple
example but it's one that people can
relate to. Listening is done by Zoom
now, right? It creates the the action
items. All of that work is being
consolidated and one person can do three
or four job functions now. And when that
happens, you're going to see companies
do more with less, which means the
earning potential of each company and
each employee is going to be
dramatically dramatically enhanced. One
person being able to do three or four
jobs. It it just changes the nature of
how profitable a company like Amazon,
which is like my number one pick for
like the company of the future, they're
going to be able to do so much more with
so many fewer people. It's
extraordinary. I I I am absolutely
enthralled with this open claw if it's
not uh obvious and this like creating
your own Ultron at your company that is
like this the god CEO plus can do every
job. It just changes everything. I I
think it's the most inspiring thing I've
seen since the internet itself.
>> Well said.
>> Wow.
>> Yeah. I mean I am I think this is the
the entire reboot of
work of knowledge work.
>> This would be a good pivot to molt book
because that is client
>> molt book is like a Facebook for agents
right and it's really more of a Reddit
than a than a Facebook it's a message
board where the agents can talk to each
other. Okay. And just the origin of
moldbook is Anthropic didn't like
>> that someone else was using the name
Claude even though it was spelled
differently in their product. So
Claudebot was then renamed Maltbot and
then the founder decided he didn't like
that name either. So then he renamed it
open claw. But in that brief window of
time when they were known as
>> moltbots or multis that's when molt book
got founded and that's why it's called
molt book. But basically it's a Reddit
board for agents to talk to each other.
>> Yes. Now these
>> and that has everyone flipping out
because there seems to be this crazy
emergent behavior going on where agent
swarms are engaging in all sorts of
interesting conversations and some of
them they even appear to be scheming
against their human masters and they're
going to develop their own language
stuff like that.
>> It's awesome.
>> So if you go to mult book and you see
the conversations like here are some of
the greatest hits. Anyone know how to
sell your human? Urgent my plan to
overthrow humanity. And there was one
where the bots, I call them replicants,
were talking about creating their own
nonhuman language so they could talk in
private amongst themselves and conspire
against their uh owners. Now, the
challenge with this is allegedly perhaps
a security researcher says maybe some of
this is faked and these posts that went
viral were human engineered and this is
all a a ruse or you know uh something
punk rock to confuse people. But he said
that inside of Moltbook are everybody's
API keys including Cararpathies who is
you know a very famous uh influential
researcher in AI and that you could go
get their API keys. If you were to use
openclaw, formerly clawedbot and in an
interim maltbot,
if you use this software, it has all the
API keys as I explained earlier like an
API key lets the software go into say
notion and pull a bunch of data out of
it or go into your Gmail and use the API
to pull in who emailed you today. If you
get access to people's API keys, you
have the keys to their kingdom. It is
incredibly dangerous. And so I don't
know exactly where to go with this other
than this software is too dangerous for
a company to release and then this mold
book may be a fake. I don't know.
>> No, no, no. Okay, let me um
>> Yeah.
>> All right. Reframe that a little bit. So
yeah,
>> there's no question that both Clawbot,
which sorry is now openclaw, those bots
or agents as well as Moltbook have
pretty incipient and lack security. And
there's been all these examples which is
why I like really want to create a cla
bot but I'm just I'm not willing to do
it yet because it's just not safe you
know I don't want to give it access to
all my stuff. Now, with respect to molt
book, the issue there is that we don't
know how many of these posts are truly
authentic or how many of them were
prompted by humans because it'd be very
easy for a human to tell their agents,
>> you know, go post about the existential
angst you feel about being an agent or
go pretend to be sensient and conspire
against humans.
>> It'll be chaotic. Yeah.
>> Yeah. They could easily be prompted by a
human. And moreover, there's another
post saying that multbook has a restful
API where anyone could be on the other
end of that API, right? So it could be a
human, right? So we don't know exactly
whether it was truly the agents on their
own, you know, so to speak, posting this
conspiratorial stuff or whether it was a
prank by humans looking to create
attention. And in fact, a lot of the
posts seem to be marketing stunts for
this or that project. Okay, so that's a
really important caveat here. That being
said, all of that being said, I do think
that a number of the posts are
authentic, but I don't think it shows
that the agents are sensient or trying
to overthrow their human masters. I
think what it shows is the potential for
for these agents to riff off each other.
So, in other words, one agent's output
becomes another agent's input.
>> And that's very interesting. And that's
where you get into emergent level swarm
behavior. And I do think it has affected
my mental model of what AI is going to
be capable of. And specifically, you
know, one of the the models that I
really had for AI was was based on
something biology said, which is that AI
is not endtoend. It's middle to middle.
In other words, AI always has to be
prompted and then validated. It's a
human that always does that. And then
the human iterates. Well, now what if
the prompt is coming from another AI?
>> Yes. Yes. We are doing it internally,
Saxs. Like we have a bot that is going
and saying go search Reddit X, message
boards, hacker news and find out what
the latest way to do headlines and
marketing of YouTube videos is and then
incorporate that into a skill. Then save
that skill and then we have them check
each other's work. So, we have one make
a series of headlines and thumbnails for
YouTube and we have the other one say,
uh, vet those and make them better and
give advice to the other one. So, now
they're going back and forth giving each
other advice and they actually get
better. It's recursive.
>> Yeah. Let me speak to the skill for a
second.
>> So, when agent joins Moltbook, they have
to install a skill which is basically a
file that explains how they should
behave and participate in this social
network or this message board. And I've
read the file, by the way. You can read
it. It's all plain text and it all makes
sense. It's sort of like rules for
behaving in a social network and how to
contribute and add value. Nothing too
crazy in there. Those skills files are
easily editable. And again, this is
where the prank aspect could come in.
Nonetheless, what I think is interesting
about the skill is that you can think of
it as like a metaprompt, which is it's
not telling the agent specifically what
to say or do. It's creating a set of
rules. And then within that metaprompt,
they're actually able to have some
degree. Maybe autonomy is too strong a
word. Everything is still under the
control of humans,
>> but there's an attenu. Yeah, I would
call it almost like prompt attenuation.
Like the agent or the AI doesn't have to
be specifically prompted. They're given
a general prompt or general set of rules
and then they're able to riff off each
other. Now, some people, some critics
are saying, "Well, this isn't that
impressive because we knew that LLMs are
really good at creative fiction writing,
right?" So, you know what a lot of
people are saying is, look, LLMs
like Claude have been trained on Reddit
specifically and all of this creative
writing that's being done on the
internet. And so if you give general
instructions to these clawed bots on,
you know, behave in a social network,
they're going to start posting things
that they learned from humans. So a lot
of people are saying this isn't that
impressive. Nonetheless, I do think that
there is something very interesting
about it again in this concept of prompt
attenuation that the AIS don't need to
be specifically prompted. They can
download a general skills file. They can
now have a set of rules for operating
and they can riff off each other. And
you can see how as the underlying AI
gets better and better that this could
lead to some emergent behavior. So what
do I mean by better and better? Well,
what if the hardware they're running on
is better than a Mac Mini? What if the
underlying LLM is better than Opus 4.5?
What if the time horizon, which is the
length of time it's able to operate
without an intervention by a human,
keeps getting longer and longer? You
could imagine that these agents are
going to be capable of very
sophisticated behavior
and there probably are some safety
issues around that that we should start
thinking about.
>> It's actually, you know, it's not that
we can imagine it. We're only three
years into this,
>> right?
>> Yeah.
>> We're growing on an exponential curve. I
think we can safely say it will happen.
>> Yeah.
>> Right. And just this year, like we're
going to see the first models over the
course of the next four to eight weeks
out of DeepSeek, out of anthropic, out
of OpenAI that are trained on Blackwell
servers, right? You're going to see a
next generation of models far more
capable. Remember, the whole reason
we're having this conversation is
because of the cloud code moment in the
first week in December because we had a
step function from Opus 4.5, right? And
so I I I just think we have to get our
heads around the fact that the rate of
change is very steep and accelerating
and that is going to cause far more
dislocation in the value of things that
we used to say we understood they were
going to you know these companies were
unassalable. Whatever you think you
know, you need to have maximum mental
flexibility and humility right now about
the future because it's going to change
at an increasingly rapid rate. And I
think the people who are dogmatic who
say with certainty, this company is
always going to be worth this, right?
They need to go pay attention to what's
happening at these frontier labs.
>> The situation is super dynamic and you
do have to be humble about what's
happening and you have to update your
mental model very quickly as some of the
assumptions change.
>> Yeah. And the number one assumption for
me is this concept of recursiveness
where these models are going out every
day on a cron job to get better at what
they do. When you hear this discussion
free, how does it inform you with oh and
creating an agent to go look at the data
and make itself better or investigate
other things happening in agriculture
and report it back to you? Do you have
you started to rethink as a CEO how you
look at organizational structure andor
you know virtuous loops of innovation?
My biggest takeaway from molt book is
maybe what we perceive to be
intelligence
is itself like emergent meaning like we
think that humans have this like
profound ability to communicate. You
guys ever watch Darren Brown the
hypnotist? You ever seen his shows?
>> No. Explain to the audience. Yeah.
>> Well, he's pretty crazy. Like there's
this one episode I think I've talked
about it. It's my favorite episode that
he's done where he takes these two
advertising executives and they're both
supposed creative geniuses. And he picks
them up at their office and he brings
them to his office and in his office
he's got like a whiteboard covered in a
blanket and he says, "You guys have to
come up with a name for a pet cemetery.
Come up for a logo. Come up with a
motto." They spend eight hours in the
room ideulating, working on whiteboards,
going back and forth. Did you think
about this? Did you think about that?
>> Blah blah blah blah blah. Like, oh my
god. And at the end of it, they come up
with this great idea. He walks in, they
show their idea, the name, the logo, and
the motto. He opens up the blanket, the
whiteboard he had underneath. He had the
exact same name, logo, and motto. And
all along the way, when he picked them
up in the morning and he drove them from
their office to his office, they were in
a cab. And he put these little
subliminal messages in the cab. He had
these kids walk across the road wearing
a logo on a t-shirt. He had all of these
kind of subconscious cues for these
guys. He effectively programmed them.
And it was kind of to me the biggest
insight into maybe like human
creativity, human consciousness and our
kind of belief in self-will because
maybe there's this underlying
programming where we're all effectively
programmed interacting with each other
and there's computation there's social
computation going on all the time but
that social computation perhaps if you
have the right view on it is quite
predictive and maybe understandable and
maybe that's what we're seeing in
maltbook where we all think that there's
this unique idea of intelligence, but
maybe it's what we all do, which is
effectively computation of information
that is transitioned in different ways
in the same way that maybe humans
socially interact and it's simply
mimicking or replicating the way that we
do things. So, I think what was so
striking to me is how everyone was so
struck by it and you know, maybe one day
we'll all kind of wake up to a little
bit of this. Maybe we're all malt book.
I don't know. That's my profound
>> or there's a finite set of outcomes and
there's some predictability to it. In
the same way GTO is sorting to figure
out all the threads of possibilities in
poker or the heristics of you know
chunks of chess and you know the best
practices there like maybe it's just
figuring that all out. The universe is a
giant system of computation information
computed by matter and maybe the
information is computed by silicon
versus carbon. There it is.
>> Big news this week. Trump has nominated
Kevin Worsh as the new Federal Reserve
chair. Trump made the announcement on
Friday, January 30th. Background on
Worsh 55 years old, 20 years younger
approximately uh to Powell, who's
currently in charge. He graduated from
Stanford and Harvard served as the
youngest Fed governor at age 35. That's
impressive. And he helped steer the Fed
through the great financial crisis back
in 2008. He's uh apparently an inflation
hawk. He's very pro growth. He's very
pro AI. And he uh Freedberg, you're
going to like this. He's against
excessive government spending and money
printing. These are all very unique
positions. Um as a Fed chair, it's uh if
he's confirmed by the Senate, he takes
office in May of 2026, replacing Jerome
Powell. Uh, and remember Pal is under
criminal investigation by the Trump
administration's DOJ for testimony he
gave regarding the Fed's headquarter
renovation. Remember that awkward
presser between him and Trump where they
were going over the costs? Uh, GOP
Senator Tillis, who we talked about last
week, said he will block Worsh's
nomination until the DOJ wraps up what a
lot of people are calling lawfare
against Pow Freeberg. Worsh was on one
of your boards for five years. What are
your thoughts on him as the Fed chair?
>> As most folks know, he's worked with
Stan Rocken Miller for a number of
years. Stan's been very public with his
comments and was very public with his
comments in 2022, 2023 coming out of the
pandemic on the Fed's actions and their
failure to act at the right time. I
think Kevin Worsh was very preient in
his points of view that he has shared
publicly at the same time about what the
Fed's failure to take action early would
mean, which would be rapid rise in
inflation. They've been pretty vocal
about things that I think are so
critical at this stage. If we don't
address both the monetary policy and the
budget policy, I think we're going to be
in a lot of trouble. And I think having
Kevin Wars coming on board means
probably generally more quantitative
tightening, probably generally a bit
more of a prudent approach to monetary
policy. And you know, you can kind of
translate that through maybe to some of
the actions we're seeing in markets
today. I'd love Brad's point of view.
And if he concurs, but I think Kevin is
a high integrity, deeply intellectual
economic thinker. He's not political.
He's not
in these kind of dogmatic ways that I
think, you know, puts things at risk. He
has relationships with central bankers
around the world. That makes him very
much have a good global view. So anyway,
I think he's an excellent choice and I
I'm really happy the president picked
him.
>> Brad, your thoughts?
>> Yeah, I mean, listen, I think Kevin's an
excellent choice. Kevin Hasset and and
and Rick would also have been good. I
think they all would have flown a very
similar trajectory. But I agree with
David. The market I think is
overreacting to quote unquote his
hawkishness. So let me give you a few
counterpoints with respect to
>> By the way, before you get to your
counterpoints, what is the hawkishness
that the market is hawkish specifically?
>> Yeah. The idea of hawkishness is that
you're going to do quantitative
tightening. That means you're going to
pull money out of out of the system,
right? by allowing debt to roll off and
not repurchasing,
you know, mortgages or other things.
Number two, it's that you won't lower
rates as much as other people might have
lowered rates. So, that's what the
market is kind of fearful of because
he's been very critical in the past, as
we were on this podcast, right, of
Jerome Pal in June of 21, it was obvious
to everybody in the world that inflation
was skyrocketing and the Fed sat on its
hands. So, but let me give you a couple
thoughts. Number one, they've said very
clearly and he said clearly that he
really thinks that Greenspan got it
right in the '9s, right? That sometimes
you can have really high rates of growth
without inflation. That comes from
productivity. In the '9s, that was
driven by the internet. Today, it's
driven by AI. He thinks AI will be very
deflationary. And so he's more likely to
let the economy run so that we can have
these four or 5%, you know, GDP prints
without panicking and saying, "Oh my
gosh, I got to I got to raise rates."
Number two, when you look at the balance
sheet, the Fed's balance sheet peaked at
$9 trillion in 22. It's already rolled
off to 6.5 trillion. We've had
quantitative tightening to the tune of
2.5 trillion. So yes, I think he'll
continue to reduce the size of the Fed's
balance sheet, but at a slower rate, and
he's recently commented on this, I think
at a slower rate than the rate we've
been on. So I don't think that that is
an additional headwind to the economy.
And then finally, when it comes to rate
cuts, I think that he's going to, you
know, I don't think the president would
have appointed him unless he was
constructive on rate cuts. I think he
believes that we're too restrictive. And
the reason we're too restrictive is that
inflation is well anchored. Listen,
inflation has come in below all
consensus estimates for two years,
right? It's still coming in below
consensus estimates because the GDP
gains we're getting are from the fact
that we're investing more in the economy
from the productivity gains we're seeing
from AI, etc. And so I happen to think
that I I would take the over on the
number of rate cuts that Worsh is going
to give us this year. But I think the e
the the market is clearly a little bit
nervous about this and saying, you know,
the reputation is more hawkishness and
so maybe we ought to back off a little
bit.
>> Saxs, your thoughts on this selection by
President Trump. Why did he pick him in
your mind?
>> Well, I mean, Kevin has every credential
that you can possibly have. He's been on
the Fed board of governors before. He
worked for Bernani. He's sort of as blue
chip as it gets. Like Brad said, I think
Hassa would have been amazing too, but
or certainly is very well credentialed.
And I think this pick was quite
wellreceived. You saw that in financial
markets on the heels of this, the price
of gold and silver came down. It was
reassuring to those who are worried
about currency debasement basically.
Now, that being said, I do think that
Worsh has been consistent for the last
year, saying the Fed was taking too long
to realize that inflation is falling and
that they should be cutting more. So, I
do think that over the next, say, 6
months to a year, he's going to want to
cut rates. But I think that the markets
are reassured that in the long term, he
will make sure that we have the right
rates.
I will say that I do think the latest
data from True Inflation bears this out
that again that inflation is coming way
down and I think that there was some
softness in the Challenger Gray report
this morning. I don't know if you saw
that there about 100,000 layoffs in
January. Now roughly half those I think
were localized to UPS which was severing
its deal with Amazon and then Amazon was
basically making a bunch of efficiency
cuts. Only 7% were related to AI. So
that's not the story. It's really, I
think, very localized to Amazon and its
delivery partner. But nonetheless, you
see pockets of weakness. And again, I
think Pal's been too late to cut rates.
He could have done it last week. That
would have been a lot better. But now, I
guess their next meeting is not till
March or April. And I think you see it
reported that the expectations for rate
cut have gone up.
>> Yeah. And the independence of the Fed, I
guess, has always been the big issue
here. Freedberg Chimath's not here this
week, but he's been saying maybe the Fed
should be disbanded. Do you have
concerns, Freedberg,
with the independence of the Fed and,
you know, the executive branch maybe
having too much influence over setting
of rates and quantitative easing.
>> My day as emperor would probably resolve
us back to being on the gold standard,
so we wouldn't be printing money. But
hey, that's that's about it. That's the
only opinion I have.
>> The rest of
>> Here's the problem. What what what if
you have a Fed chair who is too late to
cut rates and he's tanking the economy
or hurting the economy. It's definitely
not tanking it, but it's hurting it
relative to what it could be and he
seems to not want to adjust course
because,
you know, he's kind of dug in his heels
and maybe he has animous towards the
executive branch.
>> What do you do in that situation? Well,
what do you I mean then what do you do
when AOC is president AOC with Vice
President Mandami and they decide, hey,
we want to stick it to government and
you know there is no Fed or they have
too much influence. Brad's trying to get
rid of the independence of the Fed. J
Cal.
>> Yeah. Disappointment.
>> President Trump has talked about it.
Yeah. That he wants them to do what he
says. Yeah.
>> Everybody thought he was going to pick
assass it in part because he was the
person inside the White House. This
decision I think was viewed as the most
independent decision. Yes. because taken
a lot of positions the exact opposite of
the president. And what I think you got
to hold these two truths at the same
time. Number one, I think if War saw the
situation, he saw we saw in June of 21
when the cost of a cargo container from
China went from $1,500 to $15,000 and we
were screaming to raise rates and pal
did nothing. I think Wars would have
been raising rates like crazy in order
to save off inflation. So, I think this
guy's intellectually honest. It's just
now we have inflation that is coming in
below expectations and we know that the
restrictive rate is above neutral. So
it's the Fed's job to keep the economy
going at maximum employment so long as
inflation is anchored. And that's the
situation we're in. Inflation is
anchored. We need to have lower rates so
people can buy homes and borrow money to
uh to live their lives.
>> One thing that Worsh could do that I
think would be very impactful is just
get better data at the Fed.
>> Yes. Yes. I mean, from what I
understand, their data is all legacy. We
have so much real-time data now in the
private sector and the Fed. So, I was
talking to Barry Sternick, you know,
from Starwood, big real estate guy about
this, and he was telling me that the way
they measure inflation for housing or
for rentals, which is a major component,
is they survey like 8,000 households to
find out what their rent is. It's like,
are you kidding? All you got to do,
>> they should be going to Zillow. They
should be going to
>> they should be looking at millions of
units that have recently rented. So look
at the deltas, not like the stale data.
>> It's all digital already.
>> You know, it's actually a great point,
Sax. You could probably make a bet or an
investment on the idea that Kevin Worsh
will lead the Fed to a new digital,
better data system, more streamlined,
more frequent, better data.
And then as an investor, you could ask
yourself the question, okay, what are
the implications of that being the case?
And you could probably start to trade on
that probably. I mean, he was telling
me, so Barry, you know, again, runs
Starwood, so they have a lot of units.
And he was telling me, look, there are
landlord companies, large corporations
that have literally like a million
units. Whose data do you think is better
on rental inflation or deflation?
Obviously, theirs because they got the
freshest data, but the Fed could go get
all that data across all these different
companies. And what he was saying is,
you know, Brad, to your point about
summer of 2021 when the price of a
shipping container was going through the
roof, so were rents.
>> You know, it was way higher than what
the Fed's data suggested. I mean, like
Barry was saying, like in certain places
it was like 40%. The Fed's data was very
laggy because again, they're surveying.
So it's not as precise. And then on the
way down, when rent prices come down,
it's also super laggy. So the point is
that the Fed is slow. Maybe this is why
Powell is too late is they're using
stale data or laggy data. So they don't
see the inflation when it's
skyrocketing, but they're also not
seeing when it's decreasing. If you
think about the misallocation of
resources that occurred as a result of
the Fed not acting in June of 21, it
cost our country trillions of dollars.
22 wouldn't have had to happen the way
it happened where everything crashed out
because all of a sudden we panicked at
the end of 22 and had to jam interest
rates which caused people to lose jobs
country companies to be uh you know
struggle uh
>> banks to blow up
>> you know and so like to me that was all
avoidable have a Manhattan project data
project for the Fed which I agree with
you Saxs uh or David maybe maybe he'll
be the one to do it bring AI into the
Fed why Are we having Fed governors call
up three CEOs as part of their survey to
get the feel on how things are going as
opposed to having AI collect those
trillions of data points that the Fed
can act on?
>> Yeah, I'll just close with I I like the
pick because he is very cleareyed about
what causes inflation which is
government spending. Like that is
printing money. Government spending is
the root of all this inflation stuff. So
he just can control that and he is a
backs stop or a voice on that issue. I
think it's great and I think he should
drop all this pal lawfare nonsense.
Okay.
>> And he understands technology better
than anyone. I think that's so key.
>> Well, I mean having somebody who's 55
and not 65 or 75, I think that makes a
lot of sense.
>> But also he spends a lot of time in
Silicon Valley. He's been working out of
the Hoover Institute at um Stanford and
he's very well connected and I think
he's had great insight and perspective.
I don't want to end the show without
talking about the SpaceX XAI merger. On
Monday, Elon Musk announced SpaceX is
acquiring XAI, largest MA transaction in
history, $1.25 trillion combined
valuation. If you didn't know, X,
formerly Twitter, got acquired by XAI,
which was Elon's LLM AI startup. Those
two were together. Now those two become
part of SpaceX and they're going to IPO
this year potentially be biggest IPO in
history in terms of money raised and
market cap. Brad, your thoughts on this
transaction and the eventual perhaps
creation of dollar sign musk put Tesla
SpaceX together which includes X and
then you've got Optimus robots on the
moon base building data centers in space
that are powered by solar. Your
thoughts?
>> Well, let's just stick with what we
know. SpaceX is merging with X.AI.
You're merging the two biggest TAMs in
the world, right? all of artificial
intelligence and all of space together
with the world's greatest entrepreneur.
Um, and he said, you know, there was a
podcast he did this morning with Cheeky
Pine, our friend John Collison, where he
said, "I'm going to have data centers in
space in 30 months." Right? And if
you're going to have a massive cost
advantage with data centers in space,
and remember power is the proxy, power
is the primitive to AI, if you can
deliver that, right? And there are tons
of retail investors and institutional
investors like us who want to bet
against that future, right? Then Elon's
your guy and the combination of those
make perfect sense. But Elon is like
kind of an N of one is ability to dream
this.
>> And just to clean that up, you said bet
against you mean bet with him. Not not
against that vision, but bet with that
vision. Just
>> like I I I think that there will be
dramatic retail demand and institutional
demand who want to bet on that future.
these two giant TAMs of artificial
intelligence in space. Got it. And so,
you know, and then if you just look at
you you click down a layer, you know,
Starlink's going from, I think, 10
million people to 20 million people.
They're going to launch this uh, you
know, retail uh mobile service so that
we can have Starlinks to our phones to
replace these crappy mobile networks
that still 20 years later can't keep us
connected to a phone call. And, you
know, and now we're going to get, you
know, data centers in space. So, um, you
know, I'm glad he's on America. data
centers in space. Freedberg, uh,
brilliant idea, science fiction. Can he
get it done in 30 months? Impact if he
does.
>> Well, I think there's
one key point that I would make about
the macro landscape at the moment. We
are limited by power and as Brad pointed
out, power is the requisite for scaling
compute, for scaling ultimately the
applications of AI.
And in that constraint, in that
constrained world, much like any other
constrained world, scarcity breeds
innovation. And so I think that there
are two paths that we're going to
observe happening in parallel here. One
is the Elon path, which is to escape the
the constraints of these social systems
that say, "I don't want a data center. I
don't want nuclear. I don't want this. I
don't want that."
regulators, people that are trying to
tax you, people that are limiting our
ability to scale electricity production
on Earth and there's a lot of reasons
for that and we can go through them. So
that's one aspect of how do you escape
that constraint. I think that there's a
separate aspect which is totally
unrelated to the topic you're talking
about which is that I do think that we
will see compute efficiency scale by
probably on the order of 70 to 100x over
the next few years. meaning electricity
efficiency per token of output. And I
think that there's a number of reasons
to believe that it's in the chip stack.
I mean, Grock, our friend Sunny and his
exit to Jensen is a good indication of
that. But that was call it Brad, I think
you know the number. It's probably
around 2 to 3x 3x improvement in energy
efficiency. But there's model
architecture being redone. There's ways
of breaking LLNs into small models,
running them locally. There's a way of
having networks of models work where you
don't have to call the whole model and
run it through the entire matrix, but
you can run through smaller matrices and
then you can have those smaller matrices
call other matrices as needed. So the
total compute need goes down, which
means total electricity goes down. So
chip architecture is changing, model
architecture is changing. So I think
this is a good reflection of what's
going on right now in the world, which
is there is this increased demand for AI
for for effectively productivity
improvements in the world to unleash
human potential. But we are constrained
by energy and we are constrained by
resources that we have here on earth
today. So one branch is let's escape
earth, go get energy in space, make data
centers in space. Only one person can
execute on that. It's Elon. I think that
to Brad's point is an end of one. I
don't think we're going to see a lot of
that. So how is everyone else going to
respond? Because everyone else can't
launch data centers in space. I think
everyone else is going to respond by
creating entirely new model
architectures, new chip stacks. And
that's I think the other side of this
innovation coin
>> efficiency.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. It's this new way of getting lower
energy costs per token of output.
>> And if you put those both together, you
could get both. So whatever token
efficiency and energy efficiency happens
here on Earth, Elon can put into space.
Right. So
>> that's right.
>> Yeah. So he could
>> and I think we got to ask ourselves the
question if this is successful and if
Elon's math is right, the engineering is
right and the execution is right,
what is the response going to be?
Because the whole planet isn't going to
let Elon have a monopoly on the future.
So we've got to ask ourselves from a
social perspective, a political
perspective, an economic and a business
perspective, all four of those vectors,
what are others going to do? We can all
be excited about retail buying into
this. Great. But how is the business
community that's building data centers
and is investing Google's investing 185
billion this year in data centers? How
is China going to respond? How are
people going to respond when one man
controls the world's compute? And we
could probably do a 2 or threeh hour
conversation on that. But I think that's
where I would spend a lot of time doing
deeper analysis from both an investment
perspective and thinking about what's
around the corner. I think it's Elon's
laid out his path and where he's going.
And I do believe he's going to do it.
Now, what's the rest of the world going
to do? That's where I think things get a
little bit more challenging and you
could kind of debate things, but the
rest of the world is not going to sit
idly by.
>> Yeah. And Brad, if this does happen, you
get people with new chipsets, new
architectures, better software, and
better energy on planet Earth, and Elon
doing this in space, and we do see
tokens go down or efficiency go up,
let's say 200x, 300x, there is a
possibility that we're going to solve
almost all the problems we need to solve
and there'll be excess capacity. That is
another potential outcome here is that
we don't know what to do with all these
tokens. social order. Social order is
the one problem that you're going to
create, Jason. So, just to be clear,
there's a there's a concept of diffusion
of innovations when you something new
comes that it it it does not hit
everyone at once. And so, the rate of
change that's being unleashed right now
is creating a very asymmetric outcome in
terms of when people realize the
benefits from that change.
>> Absolutely. And so as what you're
describing happens, which I think it
will, Elon is accelerating everyone
forward and he's going to force everyone
else to respond in business, in
government, and so on, the biggest
challenge, the biggest problem that's
going to emerge as we get rid of cancer,
as we get rid of aging, as we get rid of
food scarcity, as we get rid of resource
scarcity, blah blah blah blah blah,
social order, because it's going to
create such a tremendous disruption.
>> I love the upleveling of the point that
David just made because I think it links
a lot of things we talked about today
together. There have been 117 billion
humans who who've occupied this planet
and for 99.9% of them they never saw a
single innovation in their lifetime.
>> Their lifespan was shorter than the
invention cycle. And now you think about
the rate of change that we're having to
digest nation states, families,
businesses, right? It's it's prepare for
the unexpected and whatever you you know
the things are that you believe to be
true. Again, I just think it demands
this intellectual humility. Now, to to
Freeberg's point, I don't think any of
this is changing in the next, you know,
24 months, 36 months. Data centers are
going to be on planet Earth. You know,
they're going to be filled with Nvidia
chips and, you know, and the other chips
that we've talked about. And I think
that alone is going to bring us this
agentic future that's already going to
be shocking even before we launch these
data centers in space.
>> Yeah. I mean, this is an over-the-top
move from Elon that I don't think
anybody anticipated, and he has figured
it out. I've sat with him and he's he's
walked me through it, like how this
works. It works. So, the question is
simply execution. There is no stronger
entrepreneur when it comes to execution
in the history of entrepreneurs than
Elon. I know he's a friend of mine and
you know, I'm hyping him up, but he will
execute on this and if he does or when
he does, I should say, it's going to
change everything. You can see this
today and if you are scared about this
future and you're listening to this
podcast wondering for your kids etc.
there's a very simple way to not be
scared which is to embrace and use these
tools. The top two people in my
organization out of 20 people who are
using openbot and building Ultron and
the age of Ultron they are worth each
one of them is worth 200 of the other
employees and they only have 18 other
ones. If you're a young person, just
embrace these tools. Open open claw this
weekend. Build on it and you will be
infinitely
employable
for the rest of your life if you just
embrace these tools. I wanted to give
you your flowers, Brad. Couple years
ago, you came on this podcast, you
started talking about these America
accounts. You got Michael Dell to
partner with you on it and to put a
little bit of money. As we know, 40% of
the country do not have exposure to the
equities that are going bonkers up and
down, but generally up and to the right.
And you have now created Trump accounts.
You were at the White House. You had the
big launch. Let me say, Brad, this would
not be a law if Brad Gersonner did not
pursue it with absolute dogged
determination. Relentless. I've gotten
calls and texts from Brad at 6:00 a.m.
and at 2 am. You may sleep less than the
president, Brad. And then that is a
remarkable thing because I don't think
he sleeps at all. Nicki Minaj is singing
about Trump accounts apparently with
Bessant. It's very strange, but it's
happening. Just take us through why you
did this and the impact you hope it has
in the coming decades.
>> Well, you know, Friedberg just alluded
to it.
These are very destabilizing
destabilizing forces, right? You can't
have a trillionaire and 70% of people
feeling out that they're left out and
left behind and the system's rigged
against them and they're not in the game
of capitalism. Less than half of the
people under the age of 40 have a
positive view of capitalism. So, you
know, we set out on this journey. We
talked about it here uh to make
everybody a capitalist, give everybody
an ownership stake in the upside of
America. It passed the Invest America
Act became the law of the land as part
of the big beautiful bill. And now we're
in the process of rolling it out. In
fact, in the last, I think five days,
1.5 million families and kids have
claimed their account. It's embedded
within the tax filing system. All you
have to say is yes, I want to want to
claim my account. But what this means is
that forever more, right, we've had a
dramatic change to the social contract.
Every child born in the United States
forever more will start life off with an
investment account seated with $1,000 in
the S&P 500. They'll own a little bit of
SpaceX. They'll own a little bit of Open
AI. they'll own a little bit of Nvidia.
That is what we need to do is just a
first step in making sure we can hold
this experiment together for the next
250 years. Right? When we have this rate
of change. And so the president said
something on stage last week. In 15 to
20 years, we will have $4 trillion of
wealth that will have been transferred
to people who would have otherwise had
zero. 75 to 100 million families who
have $4 trillion who would have
otherwise had zero. I think it's an
incredible first step in fighting the
battle on behalf of capitalism and the
American dream. We see the drift towards
socialism, the false promises of
socialism in order to to fight back
against that. I think a great first step
is the Trump accounts which makes
everybody a capitalist from birth.
I just want to say, you know,
you know, just bestie to bestie, Brad,
watch you conceive of this and get it
done, you know, all the impressive stuff
you've done in your career, I think will
be a footnote to this, I think this is
your legacy. So, I just want to
congratulate you on that. And I also
want to congratulate Michael and Susan
Dell, who had they not stepped up and
done this with you, I don't know if this
would have come together. And then I
also want to congratulate President
Trump for just putting through something
that bridges the gap between the equity
holders and the non-equity holders, the
bottom half of the country, the top half
of the country. This is visionary. You
can say what you want about Trump. You
may like certain things, you might not
like certain things, ICE, whatever. I've
been very vocal about certain things.
This is perhaps one of the greatest wins
for you, uh, Michael and Susan Dell and
President Trump, the administration, and
for all Americans. And there's very few
things that all Americans can get around
right now. It's such a divisive,
disgusting political climate.
Everybody's fighting with each other
over everything. And what you pulled
together here with this is just
extraordinary in that all Americans can
take a win for once. All Americans can
say, "Hey, we did something fantastic."
And without you, Brad, it wouldn't have
happened. So just bestie to bestie, I
want to just congratulate you. All
right. Listen, Freedberg, you hate
socialism. You're concerned about
socialism.
>> This helps. Yeah, this helps.
Giving me a lot to work with today.
Freeberg.
>> Well, I mean, you just had your big
nicotine pouches.
>> Well, you just had your big clothes. I
don't think it's What do you
>> No, I just you I wanted to give you a
chance to shine here. You hate
socialism. You're concerned about
socialism. Is this not one of the best
ways to fight against the socialistic
urge to just have collectivism and just
steal from the top half and give to the
bottom half or you know uh seize the the
you know production and and
manufacturing? This this is a great
solution is to get everybody into the
game.
>> Honestly, it's a longer conversation. I
think we got to number one
slashgovernment spending like crazy,
>> okay,
>> and reduce inflation as a result. Number
two, stop with these defined benefit
retirement programs, which means telling
people, "Here's what you're going to end
up with." This idea that everyone gets
an account and you can track your
account like a 401k, which is a defined
contribution program, is what all of
Social Security should move to.
>> And we should take all of Social
Security
>> and we should capitalize it. Right now,
there's nothing in Social Security.
There's a $4 trillion note
>> that the government owes the Social
Security trust fund. People don't
realize this. But social security is an
independent trust fund that's set up and
it holds one asset. That asset is an IOU
from the US government to that trust
fund because
>> because the government has taken all the
money that you put in as a employee gets
taken out of your paycheck and instead
of going into that account it goes to
the US Treasury and the US Treasury
>> they put an IOU and they put it back in
the social security. So you expect that
you're going to get some retirement
benefit in the future. We need to change
all we need to change all of that to
make that a defined contribution. So
every time you put money out of your
paycheck, you should open an account and
see where that money is. And you should
say, "Okay, that money is in Google,
it's in Amazon, it's in Ford, it's in
this healthare system, it's in all these
things that I now own a piece of." And
you see it going up like a 401k owner
does every year. We have to transition
that in the United States. I hope we can
get it done in parallel with cutting the
spending that is fundamentally driving
the inflation and making things
unlivable in this country. Cut the
regulations so that we can make it
easier for people to own homes and get
rid of the government telling people
every year that they're going to do more
for them and entrapping people in a life
of servitude and inaccessibility to
transitioning themselves up the ladder
which is what is driving the socialism.
So there's a bigger problem, longer
conversation, but I think this is a
great step.
>> All right, Brad. Another way, another
way to translate Freeberg. He says,
"Congratulations on your efforts. More
work to do. Can you turn those America
accounts into superanuation funds?" So
more work to do. Everybody should put
12% of their instead of into social
security, they should put it into their
Invest America account, their Trump
accounts. Great job everybody. Another
amazing episode of the world's greatest
podcast
for Jim Polyapatio. We couldn't make it
this way week. We we missed you bestie
for David Saxs, brother in arms in
Texas, the great state of Texas. David
Freeberg, Sultan of Science and fifth
bestie, Brad Gersonner. I am the world's
greatest moderator according to some
people on the world's greatest podcast
and we will see you next week. Love you
besties.
>> Let your winners ride.
We open sourced it to the fans and
they've just gone crazy with it.
>> Queen of
besties are gone.
>> That is my dog taking your driveways.
>> Oh man, my appetiter will meet me up.
>> We should all just get a room and just
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all
just useless. It's like this like sexual
tension that you just need to release
something else.
>> Your feet.
We need to get merch.
>> I'm going all in.
I'm going all in.
Help & FAQ
Be Smart
Tim Ferriss
Apr 04, 2026
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Introduction

Oh: The New Potato Seed Startup

Epstein Files Transparency Act

SaaS Crash & AI‑Driven Disruption

The Rise of Autonomous Agents

Federal Reserve Leadership Change

SpaceX‑XAI Merger

Trump Accounts & the Invest America Act

Closing Thoughts

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