Ultra-Running, Elite Transitions, and the Future of Running

Malcolm Gladwell and Chris Chavez discuss the evolving landscape of running, from ultra-marathons to track and field, touching on athlete psychology, financial incentives, training methodologies, and the broader cultural aspects of sports.

The Allure of Ultra-Running and Elite Transitions

The conversation begins with the observation that actual racing is a small part of an athlete's experience, emphasizing the importance of training. The idea of older, experienced athletes competing and winning in major events like the Boston or New York City Marathons is highlighted as a desirable return to pure competition.

Molly Seidel, an Olympic bronze medalist in the marathon, recently signed with Satisfy and announced her participation in Western States, an ultra-marathon. This move sparked a discussion about elite marathoners transitioning to ultra-running while still in their prime, rather than post-retirement. The question arises whether such athletes could "rewrite the record books" in ultra-races, potentially finding "low-hanging fruit" in terms of performance.

Molly Seidel's struggle in her first Western States race, where she finished in approximately 24 hours, led to further contemplation. While she didn't drop out and was celebrated for her perseverance, her experience suggests that success in ultra-running isn't guaranteed for elite marathoners. The difference in average pace between a 100-mile ultra and a track race is significant, leading to the perception that ultra-running might be for "not-so-great track athletes." However, the ultra-scene is getting younger and faster, partly due to increased brand investment and financial opportunities.

Ultra-Running: Extension of Distance Running or Its Own Category?

A key question posed is whether ultra-running is an extension of distance running or a distinct sport. The consensus leans towards it being its own category, given the vast differences in race duration (2 hours vs. 24 hours) and the unique psychological demands, such as tolerating sleep deprivation, which are not factors in traditional track and field or marathon running.

The psychological aspect of ultra-running is compared to the marathon. While marathons have become more routine for elite athletes, events like Leadville and Western States still represent "insuperable psychological obstacles." The ability of an athlete like Molly Seidel to transition from a two-hour race to a 24-hour race depends heavily on this psychological makeup.

The popularity of top marathoners in the United States, who are relatable to the masses, is seen as a potential asset for the ultra-scene. When these popular athletes venture into ultra-running, they bring their fan base and generate more interest. This is exemplified by Rachel and Tran's viral performance at Cocodona, which demonstrated the upside of distinguishing oneself in the ultra-world, especially for elite athletes who consistently place just outside the top tier in marathons.

The Financials and Secrecy in Running

The financial aspect of elite running is discussed, particularly the appearance fees and bonus structures in major marathons. American runners, even those finishing 5th to 10th, can earn six-figure incomes due to these contracts, which might offer a better payday than podium finishes in ultra-races. However, these financial details are often under NDAs, making it difficult to ascertain exact figures.

The secrecy surrounding athletes' training and financial arrangements is seen as detrimental to fan engagement. Unlike basketball, where fans have unlimited access to player performance data, running offers limited insight into athletes' daily routines. The idea of requiring athletes to share their training data, perhaps sponsored by companies like Garmin or Whoop, is proposed as a way to enhance fan interest and allow a broader audience into the sport. This transparency, exemplified by ultra-runner David Roche, who openly shares his training and fueling experiments, creates public intrigue and affection.

The argument is made that elite athletes are public figures and entertainers, and their livelihood depends on fan engagement. The current contracts in running, which are still rooted in an older era, do not adequately incentivize this engagement. The example of Sharon Lokedi, a two-time Boston Marathon winner with a relatively small social media following, illustrates this disconnect. While her job is to train and perform, the lack of support for social media engagement means she doesn't become a bigger star, limiting the sport's reach.

Marketing Running: Beyond the Race

The discussion shifts to how running is marketed. The current approach, which focuses heavily on the race itself, is deemed insufficient. Instead, the emphasis should be on the training, which is a significant part of an athlete's experience and can be highly social, especially in cross-country.

The drama off the court in sports like basketball and Formula 1 (as seen in "Drive to Survive") is highlighted as a key driver of public fascination. This interpersonal drama and behind-the-scenes content are largely missing in running, which is a smaller community where people are hesitant to create friction.

Lessons from Other Sports and the "Old School" Marathon

Drawing lessons from globally popular sports, the idea of creating unique identities for major marathons is proposed. Similar to how tennis Grand Slams or golf majors have distinct personalities, one marathon major could adopt an "old school" format: no watches, no super shoes (shoes provided by the event), no clocks on the course, no pacers, and only water for fueling. This would bring back the element of pure competition and unpredictability, making races more thrilling and memorable, even if winning times are slower.

The "Enhanced Games," an event designed to push boundaries, is mentioned. While it aimed for world records, the actual performances were underwhelming, leading to speculation about doping or the effectiveness of performance-enhancing compounds. This contrasts with the idea of creating unique competitive environments, like the British Open in golf, where a 59-year-old Tom Watson could compete against younger athletes due to the course's setup.

The Evolution of Records and Athlete Longevity

The conversation delves into the "overfixation on times" in running commentary, often overshadowing thrilling races. The suggestion is made to focus on the competition itself rather than solely on records.

The concept of "decade records" is introduced as an alternative to all-time world records, especially given the historical controversies surrounding doping. This would involve resetting records every ten years, creating new incentives and excitement, particularly in non-Olympic years. This approach would also value sustained high performance over singular breakthrough performances, recognizing athletes who consistently excel over many years.

Examples like Sebastian Sawe, who broke the two-hour marathon barrier but might not be considered the greatest marathoner due to Eliud Kipchoge's sustained career, illustrate the importance of "body of work" arguments. Athletes like Joshua Cheptegei, who has excelled across various distances for years, embody this longevity and dexterity.

The psychological impact of real-time feedback, such as a clock showing projected finish times during a race, is discussed. This immediate information can trigger adrenaline and subconscious adjustments, potentially leading to extraordinary performances.

The discussion also touches on the longevity of athletes in different disciplines. While top-end speed in sprinting tends to erode with age, aerobic capacity can be developed, allowing endurance athletes to compete at a high level for longer. However, there are exceptions, like sprinters who maintain world-class performance into their late 30s.

The Rise of Young Talent and the "Scale vs. Exploitation" Debate

A recent trend in running is the emergence of world-class performers in their teens, such as Cooper Teare and Kemi Myers. This phenomenon, which is relatively new for men, is attributed to factors like advanced footwear, improved training methodologies (e.g., the Norwegian double threshold method), and better fueling. However, these explanations don't fully account for why younger athletes are now dominating, as older athletes also benefit from these advancements. The role of genetics and "freak talents" is acknowledged.

The conversation concludes with a broader discussion on two paths to excellence in any field: "scale" and "exploitation." - Scale path: Increasing the number of participants to statistically improve the chances of finding a superstar. - Exploitation path: Focusing on increasing the quality of the existing talent pool through specialized cultures and development strategies.

The American assumption that scale automatically leads to excellence is challenged. Examples like the disproportionate number of Nobel laureates from a small Jewish population, or tiny countries like Norway and the Netherlands excelling in sports, demonstrate that exploitation, not just scale, is crucial for elite performance.

Norway's ascendancy as a sports superpower is cited as a prime example of exploitation, with unique approaches to youth sports, such as not keeping score until age 13. The Dutch and Australians also employ sophisticated methods, like accounting for "relative age effect" and "biological age" in youth sports, to prevent the loss of late bloomers and maximize talent development.

Upcoming Track and Field Events

The World Athletics Ultimate Championships, a new three-day competition with significant prize money, will take place in Budapest from September 11th to 13th. This event, held in off-Olympic/World Championship years, emphasizes consistency over a season through a ranking system. Athletes like Josh Kerr and Keely Hodgkinson are aiming for world records this year. The discussion reiterates the need to move past "bogus records" from eras with less stringent anti-doping measures and to appreciate current athletes' achievements in a cleaner sport.