Bitcoin January 2024 Review: Price Levels, RSI Signals, Bear Market Scenarios and Stock‑to‑Flow Insights

Overview

The presenter recaps Bitcoin’s performance in January 2024, highlighting a sharp decline from its all‑time high and analyzing technical indicators to gauge future direction.

Price Action and Moving Averages

• Closing price in January: $78,000 (‑40% from the $126,000 peak).
• 200‑day moving average (black line): $58,000.
• Realized price (gray line): $55,000.

RSI Analysis

• RSI ended January at 49, just below the neutral 50 level.
• RSI interpretation:

• 50 = uptrend

• <50 = downtrend (bear market)
• Historical bear markets (2015, 2018‑19, 2022‑23) showed similar RSI behavior, often falling to the 200‑day moving average.

Potential Depth of the Current Bear Market

• Scenario 1 (moderate decline): Price could test the 200‑day MA around $60,000.
• Scenario 2 (worst case): An 80% drop from the $126,000 high would place Bitcoin near $25,000, aligning with the lower band of the chart.
• The presenter notes the preceding bull market was weak (no strong RSI peaks), suggesting the bear could be relatively shallow.
• A possible floor might be just above the previous all‑time high of $69,000, with recent lows around $70,000‑$73,000 possibly representing the bottom.

Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) Perspective

• Current S2F value: 500,000, reflecting Bitcoin’s scarcity‑based valuation, not its market price.
• Compared to gold, real estate, and silver, Bitcoin appears undervalued at both $126,000 and $70,000 levels.
• S2F does not predict tops or bottoms; it only indicates a long‑term average price based on supply dynamics.

Four‑Year Cycle Outlook

• Historically, post‑halving tops occur in the first or second year of the cycle.
• The last halving (2024) has not produced a bull market in the first two years.
• The presenter suggests the next bullish phase could emerge in the third or fourth year of the cycle.

Final Remarks

• Viewers are directed to the presenter’s website for more data.
• Call‑to‑action: follow on X, subscribe to the channel, and conduct personal research.
• Quote: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

Bitcoin’s January slide places it well below its recent peak, with technical indicators pointing to a continued bear market. While the 200‑day moving average and historical RSI patterns suggest a possible floor around $60,000‑$70,000, a severe correction to $25,000 cannot be ruled out. The stock‑to‑flow model underscores long‑term undervaluation, and the next bullish phase may not arrive until the third or fourth year after the 2024 halving.