Greenland’s Strategic Race: Climate, Minerals, and US Interest

In Greenland, the term "Seeks" describes a sea without eyes, a strong word that evokes fear. This fear is increasingly relevant as the Arctic warms two to four times faster than the rest of the planet, making Greenland particularly vulnerable to climate change. The melting ice has amplified the island's strategic importance, attracting global interest due to its location as a hub between North America, Russia, and Europe, and its rich mineral resources.

Trump's Interest in Greenland

Donald Trump's interest in acquiring Greenland became public during his first term in 2019. Initially, the idea was met with humor, with Trump himself tweeting a picture of a "Trump Tower" on Greenland, promising not to do it. However, the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, called the idea "absurd," leading Trump to cancel a visit to Denmark and label her statement as "nasty" and "inappropriate."

Some Greenlanders, like archaeology student and environmental activist Avarak Benson, initially found the situation amusing, as it brought global attention to the Inuit people living in Greenland. However, Trump's renewed interest after his reelection, particularly his statement on December 22, 2024, that "Ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity," and his questioning of Denmark's sovereignty, made the situation less humorous. He argued that the US needed Greenland for national security.

Historical US Interest and Strategic Importance

US interest in Greenland predates Trump's presidency. Jens Hinrich, head of Greenland's representation in Copenhagen and the first native Greenlander with a PhD in modern history from the University of Nuuk, notes that the US has historically acquired territories, such as Alaska from Russia and the Danish Virgin Islands in 1917. Efforts to purchase Greenland date back to the 1860s.

World War II significantly elevated Greenland's strategic importance. With limited aircraft range and no air refueling capabilities, Greenland became a crucial stopping point for planes traveling from the US to the UK. A 1941 defense agreement allowed the US to establish military bases, with the stipulation that they could remain if a threat to the US was perceived. Weather stations at these bases were vital for planning military operations, including D-Day.

After the war, Denmark rejected a $100 million offer from the Truman administration to purchase the island. However, the onset of the Cold War solidified the US presence. Greenland's location over the shortest missile trajectory between the US and the Soviet Union made it a critical part of US defense strategy. Denmark joined NATO in 1949, and the US maintained significant military presence, notably at Thule Air Base (now Patufik), which housed up to 10,000 people in the 1960s, nearly a third of Greenland's population at the time. Today, the base, with 150-200 US soldiers, remains a crucial part of the US anti-missile shield and satellite surveillance network.

Geopolitical Tensions and Climate Change

Donald Trump Jr.'s visit to Nuuk, accompanied by MAGA influencer Charlie Kirk, further highlighted US interest, with Kirk filming a propaganda video emphasizing Greenland's security importance. Trump later reiterated these concerns, citing the presence of Chinese and Russian ships in the Arctic.

Julianne Smith, an expert on the Arctic region and former national security advisor to Trump, emphasizes the strategic importance of the Arctic and Greenland, particularly in light of Russian and Chinese expansion. She states that the US is "behind the curve" and needs to step up its security presence.

Geoscientist Paul Bierman of the University of Vermont explains that climate change is rapidly melting Arctic sea ice, potentially leading to ice-free summers within decades. This opens the Arctic to shipping and commerce but also to warships and potential conflict. The loss of sea ice also exacerbates global warming by allowing more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean.

The opening of Arctic shipping routes offers economic opportunities, particularly for Russia, which sees itself as the "king of the Arctic" and has been militarizing the region with reopened Soviet-era bases, increased submarines, and oil and gas exploration. China, with its "Polar Silk Road" initiative, also seeks a foothold in the Arctic for both security and economic reasons.

Despite these ambitions, experts like Rasmus Jarlov, a Danish Conservative Party spokesperson, believe that the military threat around Greenland is exaggerated. He argues that Trump's desire for Greenland is simpler: a quest for more land and to "put his name on the map."

Greenland's Quest for Self-Determination

In his 2025 State of the Union address, Trump directly addressed Greenlanders, expressing support for their right to self-determination and offering to welcome them into the United States, citing national security. This rhetoric, alternating between friendly and threatening, was met with protests in Nuuk, where nearly 1,000 people, including political leaders, demonstrated against the idea of being bought.

Former Prime Minister of Greenland, Kuupik Kleist, highlighted the unpopularity of the idea, stating that "you cannot just buy a land or its people." Mera Kle, a consultant who worked for Greenland's government and the UN Secretariat for Indigenous Peoples, emphasized the disrespect felt by Greenlanders regarding their ability to make their own decisions.

Since 2009, Greenland has enjoyed greater autonomy in areas like education, resource management, and law enforcement, but the vast majority of its population desires full independence. Trump's statements have further fueled this debate, dividing Greenlanders on how to achieve independence.

Carl Sand Green, director of the Ice Fjord Center, notes that Trump's proposals divided Greenlanders, with some considering joining the US and others strongly opposing it. Per Brock, leader of the opposition party Naleraq, advocates for independence but acknowledges that Greenland needs more educated people and economic diversification beyond fishing before it can be fully independent.

Mineral Resources and Environmental Concerns

Greenland's subsoil is rich in gold, oil, gas, and critical minerals, with an estimated 43 of 60 critical minerals identified by US authorities present on the island. Naaja Nathanielsen, Greenland's Minister of Mineral Resources, Energy, Business, Gender Equality, and Justice, acknowledges the need to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on Denmark's block grant, with minerals playing a crucial role.

However, extracting these resources is challenging due to the harsh climate and lack of infrastructure. The global demand for minerals, particularly for green technologies and to reduce reliance on countries like China, has increased interest in Greenland's deposits.

The Kvanefjeld deposit near Narsaq holds significant rare earth elements, but also uranium. An Australian company, Greenland Minerals (now Energy Transition Minerals), was granted an exploration license, but local opposition due to fears of radioactive contamination led to a ban on uranium mining. This resulted in the company suing the Greenlandic government for damages.

Avarak Benson, a local activist, highlights the concerns about the environmental impact of mining, particularly the disposal of waste in a lake, which could contaminate the ocean and affect the fishing and farming communities.

The geopolitical implications are also significant, with Chinese company Shanghai Resources being a minority shareholder in Greenland Minerals, raising concerns in Western countries about China's growing presence in the Arctic.

Sven Hardenberg, a former permanent secretary at the Premier's office and now an employee of Energy Transition Minerals, believes the mine could bring immense value to Greenland. The government has since approved another rare earth project with low uranium concentrations on the uninhabited side of a fjord, with Critical Metals Corporation acquiring a majority stake in the Tanbreeze deposit.

The Path to Independence and Colonial Legacy

Greenland's journey towards independence is a "marathon, not a sprint." While there are opportunities for investment, particularly from the US, Greenlanders want to control their own development.

A painful colonial memory recently resurfaced: a forced contraception campaign in the 1960s where thousands of Greenlandic women, some as young as 12, were administered IUDs without full consent or knowledge. This led to a drastic decrease in birth rates and caused significant trauma. After three years of silence, the Danish Prime Minister issued an apology, acknowledging the injustice.

Ironically, Trump's interest has brought these issues to the forefront, fostering a more open dialogue between Greenland and Denmark.

European Concerns and a Shifting Global Order

European nations, particularly France, are concerned about the implications of Trump's stance on Greenland. French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Nuuk aimed to convey European solidarity and oppose the idea of selling or taking European land. Many European leaders fear that if such actions are permitted, it could destabilize the international order and set a precedent for other territories.

The long-standing alignment of Danish foreign policy with the US is now being questioned, as the US is perceived as acting less like an ally. This has led to European nations, including Denmark, stepping up joint military exercises in the Arctic and investing in non-US defense systems, signaling a potential shift in the balance of power and a move towards greater European military independence.

Greenlanders, on their national holiday (the summer solstice), celebrate their country and their aspirations for independence. They insist that despite global interest in their resources, their small democracy should have a voice and not be a pawn in larger geopolitical games.

The people of Greenland are on the front lines of climate change. The melting ice, particularly from the Ilulissat Icefjord, a UNESCO World Heritage site, could raise global sea levels by up to 7 meters, displacing half a billion people worldwide. This makes the preservation of Greenland's ice its true global value.