Why the Market Is No Longer Trending and How to Trade It Right Now

Name: WARNING: Don't Get Wrecked at This Level
Uploaded: 2026-01-23T12:38:28.346878+00:00
Channel: Arete Trading
Description: Summary and key takeaways on Why the Market Is No Longer Trending and How to Trade It Right Now, covering Introduction The speaker opens with a quick market

Arete Trading

Jan 23, 2026

•

3 min read

YouTube video ID: drVTi_hV63g

Source: YouTube video by Arete Trading — Watch original video

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Introduction

The speaker opens with a quick market snapshot, noting Intel’s recent 10% drop and the ongoing conference call. He promises a deeper dive on Saturday but wants to lay out the current market landscape and the trading style that works best today.

Market Overview

Non‑trending environment: Since early October the market has been range‑bound, bouncing between a tight value low and high. Moving averages have lost their relevance because the market isn’t trending.
Key levels: The value low sits around 6980 on the index, with the point of control (POC) just above it. The market repeatedly fails to break above the POC, indicating strong resistance.
Player positioning: Understanding where large players are stacked (value low, POC, value high) is crucial for short‑term decisions.

Technical Analysis

Futures Market

A rising wedge pattern is forming. The speaker marks a “doge” (uncertainty) sign at the high, then drops to the low, showing how the market got wedged and broke down.
The POC is higher than the current price, a bearish sign; ideally it should sit near the middle of the range.

Nasdaq (NQ) Chart

Similar analysis: a pin placed on the chart shows the price is stuck below the POC. The body of the candle matters more than the wicks, which represent price rejection.
The market has been flat‑lining on moving averages, confirming the lack of a clear trend.

Rotation Strategy

In a range‑bound market, the best edge is rotating between supports and resistances rather than holding long swings.
The speaker emphasizes “trade what’s in front of you” and exit positions quickly when targets are hit.

Recent Trades & Lessons

Micron: Bought near the low, trimmed profit, added on a bounce. The trade was managed with trailing stops.
SanDisk: Entered right before a breakout above VWAP; the trade was closed after the price retraced.
Intel: The stock fell 10% after a botched earnings call and a restated number. The speaker exited early, citing the absurd valuation (trading at ~100× earnings).
Silver: A simple inside‑bar breakout on the 5‑minute chart yielded a clean profit.

Custom Indicators

NDFI (NASDAQ‑50 Day Indicator): Shows the Nasdaq strengthening relative to its 50‑day average. Currently above 55, indicating relative strength.
S5FI (S&P‑50 Day Indicator): Slightly weaker, creating a divergence that often precedes a reversal.
The speaker explains how the crossover of these lines can signal potential lows and upcoming moves.

Outlook & What to Watch

Expect possible short‑term volatility (“flush”) around the Intel earnings fallout and related panic selling.
Keep an eye on the POC and value low; breaking either could signal a shift.
The market may stay sideways for a while, so rotation and tight risk management remain key.

Community Invitation

Listeners are encouraged to join the speaker’s community for exclusive trade alerts and deeper analysis videos (especially the upcoming Saturday deep‑dive).

The market is currently stuck in a tight, non‑trending range, making traditional trend‑following tools like moving averages ineffective. Success now hinges on rotating between well‑defined support and resistance levels, watching the point of control, and using simple indicators like the NDFI/S5FI to spot potential reversals. Tight risk management and quick exits are essential in this environment.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Arete Trading on YouTube?

Arete Trading is a YouTube channel that publishes videos on a range of topics. Browse more summaries from this channel below.

Does this page include the full transcript of the video?

Yes, the full transcript for this video is available on this page. Click 'Show transcript' in the sidebar to read it.

(NQ) Chart - Similar analysis:

pin placed on the chart shows the price is stuck below the POC. The body of the candle matters more than the wicks, which represent price rejection. - The market has been flat‑lining on moving averages, confirming the lack of a clear trend.

strengthening relative to its 50‑day average. Currently above 55, indicating relative strength. - S5FI (S&P‑50 Day Indicator): Slightly weaker, creating

divergence that often precedes a reversal. - The speaker explains how the crossover of these lines can signal potential lows and upcoming moves.

Helpful resources related to this video

If you want to practice or explore the concepts discussed in the video, these commonly used tools may help.

Trading Journal Notebook Recommended

A physical notebook helps you record entries, exits, and observations, reinforcing the rotation strategy and level‑watching discussed in the article

Amazon →

Technical Analysis For Dummies Book

Provides clear explanations of point of control, value areas, and chart patterns, matching the technical concepts covered

Amazon →

Financial Calculator Handheld

Allows fast calculations of risk‑reward and position sizing, essential for the tight‑stop, rotation trades described

Amazon →

Monitor Stand Ergonomic

Improves comfort for long chart‑watching sessions, helping traders stay focused on the detailed level analysis

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Stock Market Trading Book Hardcover

Offers deeper insights into market structure and rotation tactics, complementing the strategies outlined

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Links may be affiliate links. We only include resources that are genuinely relevant to the topic.

Summarize another video

Full Transcript YouTube

Intel's down about 10% the time
recording this. We have to get to that
and what's going on on the conference
call right now. But before that, let's
run through the indexes. Welcome back
everybody. So, let's just start with the
basics and then we're going to get into
what's actually going on. What are the
big moves out there and what type of
style I think you should be using right
now in the market. I'm going to cover
this uh a little bit and I think it'll
be really helpful and we're going to get
full-blown into it on Saturday uh on
Saturday's video because Saturday is
when we kind of do the not kind of we do
the deep dives then. All right, let's do
it. Now, we're just going to start with
the basics. And obviously, we're just
going to start with the futures market.
You do have this trend, but you have
this rising wedge. And we've been
talking about this for some time. What
we want to do is just the basics. And
then we're going to really dive into
this. So, we're going to use the point,
and then we're going to use the next
point. And then we're just going to come
up all the way. Yay. We can see our
little line right in here. Then from
there, all we're going to do is drop
directly to the high right here. This
dogee right here. Right. Dogeis are the
signs of what? Uncertainty. Correct. And
if we just come right to that point, if
we got it perfectly, you could see how
you got perfectly wedged in. And what
did you do? You broke to the downside.
These are the facts. It doesn't mean
you're going to fall off a cliff. It
doesn't mean the sky is falling. I'm not
going to pretend to be a Japanese expert
like a bunch of other people about what
Bank of Japan's going to do tonight.
Anything they're going to do has already
been factored in in one form or another.
It's just degrees of it. What we are
going to do is we're going to take a
look at where the players are. When you
understand where the players are, that
makes all the difference. So, you can
see the value low of that area. You can
see the point of control and the value
high. So if we blow this up, we can see
that we came right to the value low. We
can see that we got over the point of
control today, which is a pretty big
deal. But you are pretty capped up here
right around that 6980 and you've been
trying to get above that. Now there's
some news after hours on Intel, which
did not do very well to say the least.
And there's some things going on that we
absolutely 100% have to go over. But
that said, let's just dive into the NQ
before we get there. If we look, we're
going to just do the same exact thing
and we're going to drop the pin right
here. Now, when we drop this pin down,
we're going to note a couple things. And
I think that these are very, very
important. From that pin over, you can
see where our level is. And you can see
how we're not getting over the point of
control. The problem that you're running
into here with the NQ, and we can do the
same exact thing. We can just go right
to that body. And I use the bodies. Why?
Because wicks are what? Price rejection.
You are trying to flip over that. Again,
trying is the key word. But what we
really want to focus on is that you have
a point of control that is much much
higher than what you have here. That's
not great. That the point of control is
actually higher. You'd want it to be
middle of the road. And this is where it
gets kind of goofy. Once we understand
this, we realize that they're weighing
on the market. So the first thing that
you're going to take from this is
anybody that would look at this market
since October and since this date,
you'll remember if you've been watching
these videos for some time, it was
October 7th before this even happened. I
stated that we went to cash. It was like
right in here. We did that for a couple
different reasons. Uh you can go back
and watch that video if you really care
to, but I'll walk through some things
here that I think you want to start
paying attention to. Uh but that really
has solidified the entire move. You
can't break above it. You can't break
below it. And you've been riding the
lightning ever since. That is not a
trending market. So no matter what
anybody says, you are not in a trending
market. Meaning if you bought the market
October 9th, you had several chances
where you could have just rode the
lightning. Right? And now here's the
other thing that people aren't
realizing. you are flatlining. So when
you flatline on moving averages, they
lose. Please listen to this part of it.
When you flatline on moving averages,
they lose their luster. It doesn't
matter. Up over, up, over. Nobody cares.
Moving averages are great in trending
markets. You're not in a trending
market. As much as we want to pretend
that we are, we're not. Now, if we take
this a little further and we go to the
cues and we look at our levels here,
you'll start saying over, under, over,
under, and it doesn't matter. All three
of these are within a couple dollars of
each other now. And when you're in a
trending market, if you take a look at a
trending market, that's not the case. So
when they get and congested like that,
it doesn't mean something wicked this
way comes. It just means that you are no
longer trending. So if we look from this
level and again, here's that control bar
and you can see those areas. Go back to
a bare chart, drop this to a 4 hour and
watch. And this is the thing that we
were all over everybody today in the
community. By the way, if you're trying
to get in, please look for an email. I
think there's two days left for this
batch that just went out, invites that
just went. Uh, but what we want to do
here is we want to watch this really,
really closely. Now, why do we want to
watch this so closely? What's so
important about this? Well, that is
point of control and you cannot get over
it. This is the value low and you can't
break it. So, are you going anywhere?
Well, if you ask anybody out there, and
let's clean this all off for a second.
Everyone's got their opinion, right? Oh,
the market's going to crash. Oh, the
market's going to go to new highs. a
market's going to crash. Anyone think
that the third option is we just go
sideways and we keep rotating? Because
that's the game that we've been playing
in the community now for months. And I
think that that's really what you want
to focus on. You are in a trading market
and when you're in a trading market, you
need to trade supports and resistances
and you have to rotate the ideas. The
idea of just holding a swing for a
period of time is going to work until it
doesn't and then you're not going to
understand why it's not working anymore.
And also, you get to an area, especially
on the cues. Remember when we looked at
the spy, just so we're clear, the spy,
you could make the argument that you're
still trending. You could make that
argument. Low, higher, low, higher, low,
higher, high, higher high with me? Good.
All right. And I keep doing these
rolling unedited. It was funny. I was
just talking to somebody that's joined
the community and he brought it up, too.
Just keep them raw and unedited. And I
think it's better because at least you
get my framework on how I think. And you
might just be like, "Oh, he has no idea
what he's doing." But at least you at
least you know where it's coming from.
So if you take a look at these levels
and you see where we're at, you're in a
non-trending market. You're rangebound.
How do you make money? You rotate.
That's what's going to work. Rotation is
going to work. And that's exactly what
we're talking about. Now, when you drop
this to a fivem minute, you're not going
to be able to miss it. You cannot miss
what's happening here, can you? There's
that 29 level, but here we are again.
And why can't we break above this level?
So if we watch that level off, we go to
a 4 hour here and we understand what
that level is. All we're going to do is
go back to the point, drop it down here,
and go, it's a Christmas miracle. And
then we're going to go to the five
minute and go, I can't believe that.
Yep, there it is. And you can just see
it. Thursday from the 22nd all the way
through right now. Keeps going. And I
think again that this is super important
for people to get. These levels are
dropping. They are dropping. And the
point of control is moving higher, which
is not great, but the value high is
dropping. It used to be a lot higher.
It's not anymore. And that's becoming a
problem. And that's another issue. like
it used to be up a little higher in here
into the 30s. You're not. So, it it's
anchored to an area and then as you
trade it moves from that area. That's
why it's so important to pick the right
pain point. We could should do a video
on that. Anyway, here's the point that
I'm getting at in regards to this.
You're unable to get above that. Ever
since this lowered, you're not going
anywhere. Friday before we got
Greenland, you you can't break. So, here
we are. And now we can see again, here
we are again, right? And just this look,
I'm trying not to laugh when I say it,
but look at it. Like, it's it's really
hard. I'll get rid of the pre and the
post. You can't miss it. That's the
level and that's what you're fighting.
Now, you're flipping it in a couple
different areas, but since Friday,
you've not been able to get above point
of control. That's not great. And 626
was the other area from the 4 hour that
you weren't able to get through before
if I swing this down. And that was an
area before where we had that level and
we just kept talking about it going,
"Hey, we can't get through this." And we
watched that over and over again. Now,
it's that level. So, they're walking us
down, but does that mean that we're
going to fall and the sky is going to
break and this is going to happen and
blah blah blah and you're going
sideways, man. Just call it what it is.
And this is what you have. You have to
learn to trade what's in front of you.
And now you need the tools to do that.
I'm telling you, one of them is
rotation. So, when you hit targets and
people have the opportunity to get out
of what they bought 3 days earlier, do
you know what they do? They get out.
They have an evil horror. So, here you
are on right take a look at Friday and
all of a sudden, what happened? Oh,
Thursday. You mean I can get out where I
got in? Yep. Oh, look. I got right back
to what? Where I could have gotten out
and I ran again. All they did was get
out. That's all they've done here. And
you've seen this over and over again.
And you can look at names that were
doing it today, too. Take a look at
Micron. And this was something that we
actually traded today. And uh I'm
probably going to do a video on this
because these were really simple trades
that people can learn. Uh but we
actually bought here. I forgot I had
this up, but we bought here and then we
actually trimmed into this and then
added on a bar right in here. And I
don't really trade the VWAP. I actually
will kind of most of the times take the
other side of the trade because too many
retail are like, "Oh, look, it's over
VWAP." If you do what everybody else
does, you're going to get the results
everybody else does. So anyway, if you
if you look at this, you can just see
how we just trend it up. And my thought
was, I'm going to get to the top of
here. And so as I'm trimming, as it's
doing what it's doing, moving the stop
up on the trail, I just said at the end
of the day, I don't want to be around
because I don't trust Intel because I
don't like Intel. I think it's a pig.
And I've been pretty vocal about that. I
think in the future I might be wrong.
Um, but not tonight. Um, which is
actually good for me because it might
give me an opportunity after everybody
blows it out, but I'll get to that.
Anyway, so here SanDisk breaks down,
flips over, retail does what? Panics,
right? All right. And so it presents an
opportunity. We got in. We got in off of
this. Actually, I'll show you. We got in
literally like right in here, right
before that. And uh I was pretty happy
with that. Actually, we bought that
right over VWAP. But really, really why
we bought it was the bar breaking out of
this level. I'll show it to you really
quickly on open, high, low, close, cuz
that's all we were using today. I was
just I was trying to teach open, high,
low, close while I was trading. Um you
can just see the close over. That was
the stop on the trade and it never did
it. We didn't have anything else up. I
think I can cut that out and show it.
That might be fun to watch. But the
whole point of this was you're going to
go back to this level. So then I just
watched you went back to that level. All
right. Well, I could trim up there, back
down, goes back up, got out again, and
then that was pretty much it. Got out in
here somewhere on the rest of it. And
the whole point of this was these are
trades. I don't need to be around. You
know, yesterday we bought this, and this
is where I'm going with it. And then
we're going to get to what I really need
to get to here with
this um where we bought this. And this
was a really simple trade. All we did
was just wait for the news to hit that
double secret tariffs were off. That's
all we did. We waited for them to come
off and you can see the bar literally
right here at 2:30. Dent's favorite time
of day and that's where we put it all
here. I'll show you that trade. Let's do
that on a five and we'll do it with the
candles cuz that'll keep everyone's
attention. But right off of this bar, it
made so much sense. Um, and then where
we were kicking was off the open because
you're already up 10% in the day on a
trade. And then we got back to where the
call wall is, which is right up here.
And I mean, it's not rocket science,
guys. 1 2 3 here. Take a look at this.
Want more educational videos? Just just
drop it in the comments and I'll start
doing them. Maybe we'll do Thursdays and
they'll be like trading videos. Uh but
the strength reports going really well
on Wednesdays. I really like that video.
People seem to enjoy those. Uh and we're
going to keep doing those. But let me
let me just get to this. So it hits
pause tariff pause. I just put that out
there so people know. And it's just like
I'm long and strong. I'm closing the
shorts because we were short. You know
when you start asking for a small piece
of ice and you're afraid of Greenland
like that, you're probably going to sell
stocks. And then this is the swing and
that's how the alert looks when it goes
out and then it's just like I'm up and
then I'm trimming small into it. But
that was the trade and it was at 2:28
p.m. Now, so that's going to take us
into today. This will have other things
in it because I just screenshotted it.
But these were like the Micron trade. So
you can see where I'm putting those in.
But let me get to it. Uh there's the
silver trade. Um and for Intel, what my
point with Intel was like it's trading
100 times earnings and you're supposed
to earn. It was just insane. Anyway, um
the point that I just was saying I was
getting 50 I got out of the stop out of
this 50% and it's showing where I got
out. I did get out of some so we're
clear I did get out of some this morning
at 110 116 119 um and the rejection of
120 was pretty clear and I'm showing
that point of control to them. Now the
reason that's so important is because
when we look at something like an ass
people would say well there's no real
reason that you have to get out of that
and they're 100% right. You know that
can 100% break out tomorrow. I don't
want the risk and I don't care if it
breaks out tomorrow because you're in a
trading market not a trending market
right we went through this with the
NASDAQ and that's why everything that I
do so you can understand how I view the
world is through the lens of index
sector stock remember I'm top down when
I trade everything I do is top down
which means index sector stock so when
we hit this level of the point of
control and we hit where we were before
we got Greenland that's telling me like
the index isn't breaking out the stock's
not breaking out of that area. I'm going
into a weekend. I don't know what's
going to happen. I'm up 20% in a name.
Do you want that or do you want to go
for a ride? And there are the questions
in the in a market like this that you
have to ask yourself. Now, that said, if
we get into Intel, which I think we
should spend a little time on here, and
what's going on, this is what's
happening. And I waited a little bit to
record the other part of this so you
could just see the damage that's going
on. And so this is when we refer to
where the guy just keeps on talking and
somebody just wants to yank him off
stage with the big cane and say stop
talking. Um and you can just see like
once you broke 50 that's where the algo
was off that move. They really screwed
up this call and they really screwed up
the earnings. Uh they came out with the
wrong earnings number. Stock sold down
scared everybody and then they restated
the number and they reclarified it and
then it tried to rally failed and now
you can see you're at 2720. Um, and this
was one of the reasons why I got out of
the way. And I was trying to explain to
everybody like, I don't know what's
going to happen with this. I know the
government's throwing money at it left
and right, but you're trading a hundred
times earnings. So, this better be the
mother of dragons of conference calls.
Like, this better be the best thing.
This better be the bees knees. It was
not. U, where can this go to? You know,
you probably can easily come down to
that 44. I don't really think that's a
stretch considering where you're at
right now. This will take time to reset.
People might look at this and say, "Oh,
I want to play the bounce." They can do
that 100%. It probably has something
like that. I actually think that if you
go watch the video from yesterday, which
I'll link at the end of this, playing
those names that I went over in that
Wednesday video. I'm not going to recap
it for time sake. I would go and watch
that video. I'll link it at the end and
just scan through it super fast and go
look at those names and go look at those
levels because they're all marked off.
They're the ones on the drop that are
the strong ones that you're going to
want to play with. What do I think about
this? I think it ties into looking at
the socks too in the reversal and you
could see that they were getting out of
the socks today um ahead of this and I'm
not overly surprised by that at all.
What we really need to focus on here and
we're going to get into this on Saturday
is that when we start watching the
market the NDFI is actually gotten
stronger. Right? So the NDFI NASDAQ
stocks above the 50-day you know on
Tuesday you were at a 45 got over 51.
Tonight you're at a 55 which is good.
you're getting stronger. It's one of the
stronger readings. If we look at the
S5FI at the same time, that got a little
weaker. So, if we go S5FI,
and this is where it gets super
interesting, I think it does. And we
look at this, what do we have? We have
our first real reversal in this. Now,
for those that are new, that aren't
aware of this indicator, um, it's
something I created and I've been using
for years, but it's real simple. This is
the 50-day off the S&P 500, right
percentage, and then this is the NASDAQ
50-day. And all I'm doing is this. I'm
just turning it into a line. And what
that line does is when we get to a
certain level, as you're going up,
you're going to see the market sell off.
When it peaks and starts coming down,
that's when you're going to see the
performance. So, if I took this for a
second, I'll show you. I'll just do the
um I'll do the NDX here. And then we'll
take the NDX. And then from there, we'll
just go here. Let's move that NDX up.
And I like doing these like this. Uh new
paint above. Yay. And the reason I like
doing them is because then people can
just watch for themselves. So you'll see
as you're kind of trending up, right?
People say, "Well, it's still moving."
Yeah, but look what happens once it
starts to roll over. It starts to really
go. It's that movement in here where you
can actually even see how you went
sideways, why it's up. And then as soon
as it starts to roll over, what's it do?
It breaks out. So when this starts to
drop and the percentage of the NASDAQ
names is going up faster than the
percentage of the S&P names, it's
relative performance, right? So, as it's
dropping here, it's the relative
performance that keeps it going. So, you
see how we're falling down when we had
all that fre that freedom winning
liberation and you can see how that's
lifting and then you see how it drops
down in here, right? That's telling you
that you're bottoming more than
anything. Same exact thing here when it
bottomed, right? And you're dropping and
then that is marking what the high. So,
this is a really good indicator to tell
you where possible lows might be and
then you want to see if they roll over,
which they're doing, and then you're
going from there. So, this might be one
of those things where you have some kind
of flush tomorrow because of Intel and
then people are like, "Oh, Intel." And
then everyone just might wake up and go,
"Okay, we're all really worried about
Intel." And then they start realizing
why are they worried about Intel when
you have other names out there that are
just going, you know, absolutely
ballistic. And I think that's really
important for me. The other thing that I
would just focus on for tomorrow, and I
think this was another thing that was
really important. Let's dropped this
back to candlesticks. Um, I'm long
silver and this was a very easy easy
thing to see if you look at where you're
at and then we're coming in here and
then you just see what happened. You had
an inside bar right in here. The body
was completely inside that body and then
from there this body just was inside
that one until it broke out. Like this
was such an easy trade today. Uh, to me
it was I mean it's those inside bars and
then when they start to move you could
just see how this followed through as
well. I don't see how people don't buy
more copper. how they don't buy more
gold now with what's going on. There's
too much uncertainty and I don't think
people are going to sit around and go,
"Well, maybe, you know, maybe he's not
going to do the tariff game anymore." I
I don't think that that's where we're
going with this. A lot of people are
going to want to watch Japan overnight.
I think that's that's overrated, but you
never know. They are buying the
treasuries into it. They are selling the
dollar still, and I think that this was
something that was also somewhat of a
caution of mine. So, while I do think
that you might get a good old-fashioned
flush off of the cues tomorrow because
of Intel and the panic here, I don't
know that you're going to get enough of
that ump. But that might be, you know,
this might actually hold that area and
we'll have to see that tomorrow. Again,
if you're trying to get into the
community, please look for the letter.
There's a batch that goes out and from
that that batch will have 48 hours from
uh tonight. That is it.