Weekly Market Recap – Jan 23, 2026: Earnings, Emerging Markets, and Trade Adjustments

Jan 25, 2026

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3 min read

YouTube video ID: xxwLniQQVJQ

Source: YouTube video by Ariel Hernandez — Watch original video

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Overview

The week of January 23, 2026 was marked by mixed earnings results, a weakening U.S. equity market, and strong relative performance in emerging‑market assets. The host highlighted the challenges of navigating a choppy, sideways market while managing positions in banks, tech, commodities, and select individual stocks.

Earnings Season Impact

Banks: Wells Fargo and JP Morgan both gapped down after earnings, with JP Morgan slipping below its 50‑day SMA. The financial sector ETF (XLF) showed similar weakness.
Industrial: General Electric continued its post‑earnings slide, now trading below the 50‑day SMA despite being a strong performer over the past few years.
Consumer/Media: Netflix and Apple displayed stage‑4 downtrends, with Netflix chopping lower after a gap‑down.
Tech Giants: Microsoft showed a brief capitulation but remained in a long‑term downtrend. The host cautioned against assuming a rebound before earnings.

Sector Highlights

Software: Recent rallies into declining 50‑day and 200‑day averages were deemed false signals. The consensus view is “no‑touch” until clearer technical setups emerge.
Emerging Markets: ETFs tracking Brazil (EWZ), Colombia (CO), Vietnam, Mexico, and Argentina all posted strong breakouts, outpacing the S&P 500, which is in a clear downtrend versus these regions.
Commodities – Silver: Silver futures surged over $100 in a single session, pushing the market far above the 50‑day SMA. Short positions (e.g., SILJ) suffered significant gaps, highlighting the risk of over‑extension.
Energy: XOM was trimmed due to uncertainty around natural‑gas price spikes from a cold snap. The host remains cautious about holding a full position.

Trade Management Insights

Position Trimming: Regularly taking profits (e.g., trimming APLD, Cipher, XOM, Alibaba) helped lock in gains and reduce exposure in a volatile environment.
Short‑Side Strategy: Successful short trades (e.g., Netflix, certain silver shorts) require staying below the 200‑day SMA and avoiding stubbornness when the market squeezes.
Shakeout Buying: The host plans to focus on buying under‑cut rallies and shakeouts, then trimming incrementally over the first few days to capture upside while protecting against reversals.
Patience vs. Over‑Holding: Balancing patience (holding XOM for a month) with timely profit‑taking is essential; being too patient can lead to round‑tripping gains.

Outlook

The market is expected to remain choppy for the near term, with emerging‑market ETFs likely continuing their outperformance.
Major tech names may stay in downtrends until clear technical breakouts occur.
Traders are advised to prioritize clean setups, manage risk aggressively, and be ready to adjust strategies as earnings data and macro conditions evolve.

Practical Tips for Traders

Watch for stocks breaking below their 200‑day SMA as potential short candidates.
Use 5‑minute opening‑range breaks as stop‑loss levels for intraday shorts.
Consider scaling into positions after a shakeout rather than chasing full‑strength rallies.
Keep an eye on commodity extensions (e.g., silver) that may be vulnerable to rapid reversals.

The market is currently in a sideways, choppy phase with earnings pressure on U.S. equities, while emerging‑market assets show relative strength. Successful traders will focus on disciplined profit‑taking, shakeout buying, and strict technical criteria to navigate the volatility.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Ariel Hernandez on YouTube?

Ariel Hernandez is a YouTube channel that publishes videos on a range of topics. Browse more summaries from this channel below.

Does this page include the full transcript of the video?

Yes, the full transcript for this video is available on this page. Click 'Show transcript' in the sidebar to read it.

Helpful resources related to this video

If you want to practice or explore the concepts discussed in the video, these commonly used tools may help.

Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets Book Recommended

Provides comprehensive chart‑reading techniques and risk‑management strategies, essential for navigating choppy markets like the one described

Amazon →

Emerging Markets Investing For Beginners Book

Explains how to identify and trade high‑growth emerging‑market ETFs such as EWZ and CO, which are outperforming the S&P 500

Amazon →

Silver Futures Trading Strategies Book

Offers practical guidance on handling volatile silver moves and avoiding costly short‑position gaps highlighted in the recap

Amazon →

Links may be affiliate links. We only include resources that are genuinely relevant to the topic.

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Full Transcript YouTube

Hey guys, it is January 23rd, 2026 here
with your after hours recap. So,
what a week. Um, what a week. Let's, you
know, we could talk a little bit about
the metals. We could talk today about
the banks. We could talk today about
some biotechs. Um, so let's just kind of
start to dive into it. Um, obviously we
are in the middle of earning season and
some pretty notable names have reported.
um Wells Fargo being one of those and
you get the earnings gap down and then
you get, you know, um the multi-day
slide. You recently got Intel yesterday
and what did you get? You got the gap
down and then you got about the all day
selloff down 17%.
Um and I don't know if and when the
market is going to start to rebound this
name, but that is where we're at at the
moment. Um, you recently have had a
General Electric and look at what's
happened ever since earnings. You just
continue to slide now below the 50
simple moving average. All things told,
obviously this is still um been one of
the best winners over the last couple of
years and a General Electric, you know,
a little bit beaten up here. Um, you
know, a worse for the wear. Netflix, you
have obviously been uh underperforming
the market and you finally kind of
gapped down as well on earnings and
you've just been kind of chopping around
ever since earnings, but really not that
good in a definitive stage 4 downtrend.
Um followed up by a lot of software
names. Now, today was a little bit
interesting. We did have Microsoft over
the last few days, you know, kind of um
put in what looked to be maybe a little
bit of a capitulation, you know, a
couple of up days in a row, but you
know, how many stocks of Microsoft size
have just been, you know, in like this
very steady downtrend um leading up to
earnings and then maybe that creates an
opportunity to buy before earnings. And
you also had a few other software stocks
today. I noticed like
um perking up. I noticed like into it
perking up but I don't want to make too
much of it because we have seen this
movie before where you know you get a
rally back into like a declining 50-day
a declining one uh 200 day etc and then
all you really do is end up rolling
right back over. So software right now
is a no touch in my book. Obviously um
everywhere you everywhere else that you
look um that's like from the emerging
markets like in EWZ uh for Brazil
fantastic breaking out. Um if you looked
at like the EM or if you looked at like
the SPY um by the EM you'll notice
something very important which is that
right now our S&P 500 is definitely
breaking down versus emerging markets.
whether it be China, Vietnam, um you
know, Colombia, Poland, just every other
emerging market, Brazil, Argentina,
right? Just look at the Argentina ETF.
Um you know, really starting to
potentially push out higher here out of
a really, really nice multi-year base,
really nice move up, nice contraction,
nice sideways, nice breakout. EWZ,
similar thing. Um uh if you looked at CO
or um CO yeah C O the ETF for Colombia
really really nice strength here as well
just so Latin America um you know again
Vietnam's been a good one. Mexico has
been a good one and that is definitely a
theme that could very well continue to
play out over the coming um months or
the rest of this year. That would be
pretty interesting. And you're seeing it
kind of in our tech names, especially
software related, the biggest names in
the world in the United States, right?
Whether it be Apple, um, not looking the
best here. Not a very appetizing chart.
Seems like the path of least resistance
is lower. Um, you know, I'm not going to
get fooled into a couple of day bounce
in a Microsoft. It does look like the
path of least resistance is lower. We
have seen it. Now again, I'm not trying
to compare a Spotify to a Microsoft, but
you are completely breaking down. Path
of lease resistance looks lower. NO,
same story. Path of lease resistance
against lower. Palunteer, which has been
a looking like a late stage base,
something that I've kind of been talking
about and touching upon for the last few
months. Um, you know, you think about
how big this move has been. One of the
things to remember is that typically
um 18 to 24 months is about how long
you'll get out of an earnings winner um
out of a thematic winner. A lot of these
stocks um they have been going for
months on end and you finally get um
what looks to maybe be a rolling top on
um Palanteer. I would not be too
surprised if we are below the 200 simple
moving average here pretty soon
considering we really haven't tested it
since August of 2024. So, you know, my
guess is potentially lower on some of
these names. Um, it's also good to note
what the XLF is doing, which is the
financials. Um, you kind of look at JP
Morgan breaking down here below the 50
simple moving average. Not the best
look. We obviously talked about Wells
Fargo sliding on earnings, not the best
look. You look at a Croup, you know,
this is looking a little bit like a bare
flag and potentially ready to head lower
as a failed breakout. Um, and that would
be, you know, kind of alarming. Um, the
KRE recently, which I thought, you know,
could be breaking out. All it really did
was hit its highs from November of 24
and then fail pretty hard, pretty hard.
What did that cause? Um, that caused a
slip today in the IWM. Now, nothing
truly wrong with the IWM, but it is good
to kind of take note of what you are
seeing. A ArkG,
um, one of those where you thought maybe
Genomics yesterday were going to get
going and nope. What did the genomics
names do? They got absolutely pummeled.
You hit that left side peak. Today
you're completely rolling over and you
look at a name like TEM continues to act
just like TEM does below the 50
rejecting there. Uh Crisper one that had
a really nice day yesterday rejecting
really hard and that is part of the
theme of the market, right? You get
these really nice moves and then a few
days later you're just rejecting. Um
Reddit similar story. you get what I
thought was a pretty nice entry here and
just a few days later shaking you out
and then a few days later just lower.
That is the kind of nature of the market
at the moment. Um, you know, can't
really make too much of it more than
that. I I did have a piece of APLD
yesterday. Unfortunately, it really
didn't get going. And then I didn't buy
this one back today. Very very nice
push. I did buy some cipher. Um, I
thought, you know, that that was a, you
know, pretty nice one. I bought it right
back through 17 bucks. Uh, very nice
little setup going back through the 50
simple moving average right on the
daily. Pretty pretty straightforward
setup. Um, and then I did trim some off
right right into yesterday's highs about
uh $1820
roughly. So, that was good to take off a
little piece there. Um, I did go ahead
and trim up a little bit more of my XOM.
um a little bit of an oddball close, you
know, into some weakness and I I'd
rather kind of not deal with a full
position. A part of me thinks that Nack
Gas is ripping and this might be right
or wrong. Um Nack Gas is ripping uh
because of the cold snap that we're all
kind of in across the entire country,
unless you're in South Florida or
Arizona. Um congratulations. But if
you're in the Midwest like I am, it is
pretty damn cold here. And I felt that
some of these names um in particular X
SOM was a beneficiary of NAC gas going
higher. Uh but when we kind of started
to falter today really you know once we
kind of get through this little cold
spell and if NAC gas rolls over um into
next week I didn't really want to hold a
position that I haven't trimmed for an
entire month um you know still sitting
in there you know basically full size. I
did trim some off 133. I did trim some a
little piece off today as well um on
XOM. So, I'm I'm just sitting there
completely trimmed, completely
comfortable. Uh Alibaba,
similar story today. It started to act a
little bit weak. Um even though it had
some pretty good news news yesterday, I
did just go ahead and take off another
piece of my Alibaba. Happy to just let
that work. Um and really that's just
kind of been the theme of the market.
You had um homebuilders as well. I would
say pretty unimpressive. Another little
down day here. Toll Brothers is the one
that I'm watching if and when this thing
ever wants to get going, but I'm not
really going to force my way into any of
these stocks. We haven't really had um
the cleanest of trends unless it's just
been, you know, some of the rocket
stocks and even, you know, Rocket Lab um
I thought was a pretty nice little
bounce off the 20-day yesterday, but if
you don't take some off today into the
close, you are effectively roundtpping
today's move. And that is kind of a pain
in the butt. massive massive move um
today in silver futures. We are
officially up and over a hundred bucks.
Excuse me. Um
we are officially up and over a hundred
bucks. Really nice action uh within
silver. Obviously I think we're getting
a little bit extended. Um I of course
tried a short and you know I've tried my
hand at SILJ a handful of times. I I
did, you know, kind of a um something
that I shouldn't, which is hold a small
red really into a overnight weekend with
no cushion. Got hit with the gap up on
Monday on or on Tuesday, excuse me, on
SILJ. Again, a bit of a lesson learned
there. I thought we were getting pretty
extended on this uh SILJ. you know,
Heckler at one point, you know, kind of
um acting a little bit weaker and I was
like, "Okay, let me go ahead and try
this again and see if this thing finally
wants to roll over some." Nope, not at
all. Um I mean, there's a lot of short
sellers, myself included, who, you know,
kind of got their butts kicked in um in
silver. I have been trying SILJ over the
past couple of sessions. I've also been
um trying some SLV. I don't really want
to get too stubborn with this stuff, but
uh you know on the daily really just
like anything else, you start to go
vertical. Eventually the move ends. We
don't know when that move is technically
going to end. Um but we are getting
quite extended away from the 50 simple
moving average and you know for that
reason you know that's kind of why I'm
attracted to the idea. But obviously it
is not an idea that has been working.
One of the best things that I have been
doing um with the exception of that
Monday gap up is trying to keep smaller
size and then just letting it um you
know adding more as it's working. The
problem is is it hasn't been working. So
I really haven't been getting the
opportunity to just sit there and add
and add and add and add and add to my
winner. Um that's kind of the scenario
that I'd rather be in versus just add
add to my loser. Um and then end out
with end up with some really really big
outsiz loss. So, not necessarily um a
trade for everybody, which I totally
get. And I would probably say, you know,
looking at my Netflix trade um which I
shorted two and a half months ago
basically um in November. This is or two
months ago, excuse me. This is the sort
of trade you really want to be in. If
you want to play the short side, focus
on things below the 200 simple moving
average of playing a parabolic move. Uh
whether it's an SMCI back in the day or
MSTR in November of 24 or even a UAMY.
um every now and again you you time it
up right. Um but other times these these
things can just keep squeezing and you
know they can definitely make somebody
who digs in a little bit too hard on the
short side um end up with an outsized
loss. So that is not something that you
necessarily want. Obviously it happens
to the best of traders but uh just try
your best to not get too stubborn. NEM
another long that I do own which is a
gold miner coincidentally and here I am
um obviously shorting some silver um
I've owned this thing since the
beginning of December really really
clean beautiful trend but as we're
getting more extended we are about eight
times plus its uh ATR from the 50 I have
been trimming some off over the last
handful of sessions just slowly trimming
some off um as it's going higher and
that will kind of remain the plan until
we get you know 11 12 13 times its ATR
from the 50 and then at that point I
would just, you know, gladly let it go.
It was a great trade. Um I don't really
need too much more than that to be a
happy camper. Um
and I don't know what else may have um
transpired today that was pretty
interesting. Obviously we had um over
the last couple of days AMD be super
strong. All it really did was bump into
this left side peak decide to digest a
little bit. We had Microsoft obviously
today wake up in a pretty big way. Uh
but nothing really to do there. Uh
Apple, we have just really no strength
in this one. You had a few of the um how
do I say it? The uh Open AI related
names catching a little bit of a bid
today. And then that obviously caused a
little bit of weakness in Google. I
don't really want to read too much into
that myself um because Google I think is
still one of the better names out there
just in a very very clean trend not
being uh extended at all.
Um, I also uh held my Nvidia short and I
still don't necessarily love what this
thing is doing. You had um you had a
piece of news where Chinese come well
China said, "Hey, you know, you can kind
of get your H200 orders ready." Um,
okay, that's totally fine. And then I
was like, "Oh well, I wake up in
the morning and my plan was if we would
take out yesterday's highs, I would get
out. But I wake up in the morning and
this thing's gapped up and I'm like,
"Okay, well let me just um you
know kind of see what happens after the
first five minutes. And I told myself
that I would be using a five minute
opening range break as my stop. Well,
you got yourself a fivem minute squeeze
and then a complete dump. Um and then it
proceeded to do absolutely nothing all
day. So I did go ahead and keep my
Nvidia short so long as we are staying
below that five minute um opening range
high. That will kind of be my line in
the sand. Um, if by chance we are
breaking back through the 50 simple
moving average, um, I would be adding to
this position on the short side as well.
So, um, it's not a huge position at the
moment, but I would be happy to add to
it if it's going to work. Um, again, I
don't really look at this as the most I
mean, it's it's not the world's worst
chart. Um, but again, think about where
we have come from. Think about what
other software stocks are doing at the
moment. And then really and and I'll say
this, the SMH to me still looks fine,
but where is the technical setup to buy
this? And then I would tell anybody,
find me a semiconductor stock maybe
outside of Nvidia that potentially looks
ready to go higher. Even an AMD for me
needs to, you know, it's built now a
cup. It would now need to build out a
handle here for the next couple of days
and then maybe it's ready to go higher.
Obviously, we're in the middle of
earning season. Um, and when I just kind
of think about all the things that I
just laid out, software acting poorly,
um, you know, even an apploving
potentially breaking down. Um, you look
at it even like at a potential Carvana,
you know, hitting a little double top
and then today rolling over. I'm not
saying Carvana's, you know, done, but
you just have a handful of these stocks,
you know, that have been on runs for a
handful of years. Um, and I wouldn't be
too surprised at all if we see some more
digestion in the market uh, over the
upcoming week. What is leading right now
is emerging markets. Um that's not to
say that the QQQ can't just continue to
show some power and then we are just a
couple of you know percentage points
away from an all-time high two 3%. Um
and then I would have to kind of change
my mind. But my problem I think is a is
a simple one is there is it's a choppy
market, right? a sideways choppy market
more than it is an uptrending market
where there's a proliferation of clean
setups and stocks ready to go higher.
Hence the reason why we are all it can't
just be me um dealing with a bunch of
chop or maybe it is just me um and all
you guys have just nailed the best
stocks in the market uh since the
beginning of the year and I know some
people who have um and that's amazing
that is exactly what you want to do. uh
you want to be in SanDisk, you want to
be in WDC, you want to be in MU, you
maybe want to own an X SOM, you maybe
want to have have shorted software. Um
and if you've done everything right,
you're having a killer year. Um if it's
been a little bit more difficult to
navigate, it has been a little bit
choppier for myself. It's not like I'm,
you know, getting absolutely crushed,
but it again, it is been pretty choppy
for me since December. December was a
small red month. Um and January has been
so far a red month. So, um, and part of
it is stock selection, right? It's just
been simple stuff like, um, instead of
buying Rocket Lab yesterday off the
20-day, um, I'm buying ALD, right? I
mean, that's that's part of my issue.
I'm buying APLD yesterday and I'm not
buying it today. So, that's just part of
the um, you know, what's what's
happening to me, you know, in that
front. On the day when I'm supposed to
buy, uh, SNDK on the breakout of on the
second at, you know, 247, my alert goes
off. What am I doing instead? I'm buying
ALAB thinking this is a low cheat setup
and I'm buying um Reddit, right? So,
just piss poor stock selection. Um and
then and then really the market just
fairly poor follow through um while
trying to get positioned in some of
these names. Just not enough
follow-through. So, you know, it's um
some of it's my own doing and I, you
know, I kind of got to take the um I got
to take the brunt for that and it's not
a big deal. Um, you know, we live and we
learn. We have to keep executing. You
have to keep finding stocks. You know,
even a GL, which I thought was a pretty
nice setup yesterday. You know, you're
kind of breaking out of this low cheat
setup. You're taking out uh this very,
very tight Wednesday's day. Um, you're
even clearing Tuesday's high and all of
a sudden, if you're not selling into
this and and you'd be looking really
smart, you'd be like, "Man, I nailed
that." All of a sudden, you're you're
basically giving it right back to your
entry. So, that's just part of the
environment that we're in right now.
Again, a little bit frustrating. It is
what it is. Um, the markets will turn.
Um, I think one of the adjustments, at
least for myself, um, and happy to kind
of talk about it, is I plan on buying
more undercut rallies. I plan on buying
more shakeouts. Um, and then just
trimming a piece on day one. Um, a piece
on day two until I can like look at a
stock and say, "Man, I shouldn't have
trimmed so much. Um, I've only got 30%
of my position left. I'm day three." Um,
and then being a little bit frustrated
that maybe I don't have as much left
because when you're in a choppy
environment, you know, you you get to
Rocket Lab on day two if you bought it
yesterday and part of you starts to say,
"Man, I I wish I would have trimmed a
little bit more into that 93 level,
right? I look at Baba um when it hits
that 180, right? This this left side
peak basically, and I say to myself,
man, you know, I wish I would have taken
a couple more off." um instead, you
know, you're you're close a little bit
weak, you gap down overnight, you sell
off just a little bit on the day. Not
like it's a huge deal. Um but it's just
kind of the environment that we're in.
You know, you get a really nice push and
even like Cipher uh today. I buy this
undercut and rally at 17. Once we start
to get into yesterday's highs, you know,
in the back of my mind, I I'm over I'm
over here sitting uh thinking to myself,
you know what? Let me just go ahead and
peel some off. So, we start to roll over
just a touch and I start taking some off
at 1820s and I'm like, you know what?
Okay, that's that's fine. That's
probably the right idea after this
really really nice move. Um, and again,
end of day, it ends up closing week now
instead of being up, you know, a$150 per
share. And if it would have closed at
highs, you know, I'm up 60 cents a
share. So, not as comfortable if you're
not selling some off into this strength.
That's just the reality. It's okay to
buy a shakeout, right? Or even a shake
of prior day low or even the, you know,
almost the low before that. For me, it
was just a reclaim of the 50. But buying
a shakeout and then trimming some off
into supply, uh, just feels like the
best move right now. Um, and that's
probably what I'm going to continue to
do doing forward or moving forward until
I sell too much of a position and then I
realize like, hey, you know what? I
probably have sold a little too much of
this. it just continues to work and work
and work and then I buy another one that
maybe I sell a little too much too soon
and and then that one just continues to
work and work um versus just kind of
ending up in a scenario where I'm just
roundtpping gains because I'm being too
patient in the environment that we are
in. Um you have to kind of recognize the
change. Um, and that is, you know,
something that, you know, I maybe
haven't done quick enough is, you know,
being fast to take some gains off the
table, right? I always want to be as
patient as possible. You know, I've been
patient for a month in X SOM and we are
effectively at, you know, highs of the
entire move, right? So, I I want to be
patient in trades, you know, especially,
you know, monthly and and weekly bases
like this. because I want to be patient
as I can in these, you know, kind of
monthly breakouts um as I can be, but at
the same time, I don't want to give back
too much of my profits and make sure
that I'm paying myself into some
strength and then just continue to let
things work from there. So, a little bit
of a frustrating environment. It is what
it is. You know, we chose to do this for
a living, so no crying at the casino,
but hopefully you guys are all trading
well. Please stay safe out there. Um
enjoy your freezing cold weekend. make
some hot cocoa and relax inside, watch a
movie, um unwind. I know that's
definitely what I'm, you know, thinking
about doing here for this weekend is, uh
staying in and just relaxing and uh you
know, staying out of the cold. So
hopefully again you guys all had a much
better trading week than I did. And I
look forward to seeing you guys all on
Monday. Cheers.