Introduction: a map that predicts war

A single map is presented as a tool that “will tell you exactly how this war will progress.” The map focuses on the narrow waterway that links the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and the surrounding geopolitical landscape.

Significance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 kilometers wide, yet it is described as “the center of the world” and “the nexus, the pivot of the world.” Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the strait on its way to Asian markets. Specific dependencies are stark:

• India obtains 60 percent of its oil through the strait.
• China relies on 40 percent.
• Japan depends on 75 percent, and Prime Minister Takiichi warned that a closure would leave Japan without oil in 8‑9 months, causing its economy to collapse.

Iran has, in the past, closed the strait, prompting fears of global economic suffering. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries export oil through the strait and import 80 percent of their food, making them a “lynchpin of the American empire.” The petro‑dollar system hinges on the GCC demanding U.S. dollars for oil, which underpins the value of the dollar. If the GCC collapses, the brief argues, “the American economy and American empire both collapse at the same time.” The GCC is called an “artificial construct” because it lacks natural resources such as food, oil, and water; its cities grow only on petro‑dollar inflows and would starve if food imports stopped.

Iran’s strategic position and offensive capabilities

Iran’s terrain is dominated by mountains, which the brief calls a “mountain fortress.” This geography allows Iran to hide rocket bases, drone bases, and missiles, forming the core of its offensive strategy. From these concealed positions Iran can strike:

• U.S. military bases – defense is described as “impossible.”
• Oil and energy infrastructure – drones can “blow up oil fields” easily and undefendably.
• Water supply, especially desalination plants that provide 60 percent of GCC water, which are “easy to destroy with drones.”

The GCC is portrayed as a “flat desert” exposed to attack with no viable defense, and the brief claims Iran can “destroy the entire GCC at any point.”

Iran’s weakness and potential Israeli/U.S. strategy

Despite its offensive strength, Iran suffers from a severe water problem, worsened by drought and climate change. The brief outlines an Israeli‑American plan to destroy Iran’s water supply, turning the “mountain fortress into a mountain prison” where the population would have no access to water. Anticipated future attacks would target civilian infrastructure—hospitals, dams, reservoirs, and power plants—with the goal of making Iran “uninhabitable,” potentially sparking rebellion or a refugee crisis.

Escalation and potential outcomes

The conflict is framed as a “game of chicken” that could lead to “the end of the world.” Iranian motivations are linked to martyrdom rooted in Shia belief, while GCC societies are described as materialistic, with expatriates (making up 90 percent of Dubai’s population) likely to flee if conditions deteriorate. Critical questions include:

• Whether the United States will deploy ground troops, seen as the only way to defeat Iran.
• The possible use of nuclear weapons if a side is losing.
• The involvement of European powers (Germany, France, Britain).

If Europe intervenes, the brief warns that Russia and China might side with Iran, potentially escalating to World War III. Game theory is suggested as a lens to understand these dynamics.