Operation Epic Fury

On Saturday, February 28, President Donald Trump announced the launch of “Epic Fury,” a joint U.S.–Israeli military operation aimed at striking the Iranian regime and paving the way for its overthrow. The opening wave involved 200 fighter jets attacking at least 500 Iranian sites, including a claimed bombing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s compound. Trump declared the assassination successful, and the campaign was said to continue for as long as necessary, with calls for the Revolutionary Guard’s surrender. Iranian state television later confirmed the Supreme Leader’s death.

Iranian Response – Operation True Promise 4

In rapid retaliation, Iran initiated “Operation True Promise 4,” firing hundreds of missiles and drones at Tel Aviv and U.S. bases across the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq. The barrage reportedly lasted nonstop for more than 14 hours, penetrating defenses despite a month‑long U.S. buildup and hundreds of combat flights in the region.

Interceptor Missile Vulnerability

A core weakness exposed by the exchange is the shortage of interceptor missiles. The U.S. Navy alone expended roughly 200 SM‑2 and SM‑6 missiles during the January 2025 campaign against the Houthis, and destroyers could not be resupplied while deployed in the Red Sea. During the June 2025 Israeli‑Iranian war, Iran launched about 550 ballistic missiles at Israel; the United States responded with 150‑250 THAAD interceptors and 80 SM‑3 interceptors. This represented about 25 % of the total THAAD inventory in less than two weeks, a system that has delivered only 534 interceptors since becoming operational in 2010. Each THAAD interceptor costs over $13 million, three to four times the price of an Iranian missile, while SM‑3 units range from $9 million to $28 million. Stacie Pettyjohn of the Center for a New American Security warned that a high‑intensity conflict could exhaust a year’s worth of critical air‑defense stockpiles in just one or two days, forcing the Pentagon into a trade‑off between protecting Israeli airspace and shielding U.S. assets across the Gulf.

Production and Procurement Challenges

The shortage stems from a bottleneck in interceptor production. The Pentagon has avoided long‑term procurement commitments, leaving contractors hesitant to scale up without multi‑year guarantees. Production lines lag in efficiency, speed, and precision, and the ongoing U.S. support for Israel since October 7 has further drained missile stockpiles. General Dan Caine warned President Trump that critical munitions were running low and that allied support was absent. The Pentagon requested roughly $30 billion from Congress to replenish missile inventories but received only about $2.5 billion in January. That funding will support the production or purchase of 37 THAAD and 96 Patriot missiles in 2026, and increase annual Patriot contracts from 600 to 2,000 units—still insufficient if a broader conflict, such as with China, erupts. Long production timelines exacerbate the problem.

Israeli Preparedness and Decisive Factors

Israeli officials acknowledge the interceptor shortfall and are focusing on fortified shelters rather than missile defenses to protect the civilian population. The decisive factor in the unfolding crisis is Iran’s ability to sustain a flood of missiles, drones, and cheap weapons. If Iran can continue this pressure, it could shape President Trump’s political calculus, influencing whether he persists with the campaign or seeks a diplomatic settlement.