Review of Professor Cien’s 2024 Predictions

Professor Cien, a guest on the show and the creator of the YouTube channel “Predictive History,” uses game theory to analyze and predict geopolitical events.

Review of Professor Cien’s 2024 Predictions

Cien predicted three major outcomes for 2024: first, that Donald Trump would win the November election; second, that the United States would go to war against Iran; and third, that the United States would lose that war, a result that would forever change the global order. He repeats the exact wording: “First is that Trump will win uh in November. Second is that um United States will go to war against Iran. And the third big prediction is that the United States will lose this war which will forever change the global order.”

Progression of the US‑Iran War

Cien stands by his forecast of a US loss. He notes that Iran has been preparing for this conflict for twenty years, describing it as a war of attrition against the “great Satan.” A twelve‑day war in June allowed Iranian forces to study Israeli and American strike capabilities, and they have had eight months to ready the current attack. Iran employs proxies—including the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and various Shia militias—to weaken the American empire.

The Iranian strategy targets the global economy, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and American bases. Attacks focus on critical energy infrastructure and water desalination plants. Water desalination supplies 60 % of the GCC’s water; a single drone strike on a Riyadh plant could deprive ten million people of water within two weeks. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 90 % of the GCC’s food imports and threatening Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar.

Economic Implications

The Gulf States act as the “lynch pin of the American economy.” Petrodollar recycling from these states fuels U.S. stock markets, AI investments, and data‑center construction. If Gulf states cannot sell oil or finance AI, the AI bubble and the broader U.S. economy could collapse. Cien calls the entire American economy “a financial Ponzi scheme.”

Military and Munitions Issues

An Amazon data center in the UAE was hit, potentially deterring further tech investment. The United States is racing to complete its mission before its interceptors run out; a video shows eleven interceptors missing a single Iranian ballistic missile. The cost asymmetry is stark: a drone costs about $50,000, while an interceptor can cost tens of millions of dollars. Cien argues that the U.S. military, designed for the Cold War, is not built for 21st‑century warfare and relies on expensive, sophisticated technology. The current conflict is “puncturing the aura of invisibility and inability that sustained American hegemony for the past 20 years,” signaling the collapse of the petrodollar and the U.S. dollar‑based reserve currency system, and ushering a shift toward a multipolar world.

Potential for Ground Troops in Iran

Secretary of War Pete Hexath did not rule out deploying ground troops, but many view such a move as the worst calamity for the United States. The U.S. is committed to regime change in Iran, a goal that typically requires ground forces. Pressure from GCC countries and Israel could force a ground invasion, especially if the Gulf states fall and the petrodollar system collapses. Cien notes that Americans lack political will for ground troops—78 % opposed the initial strikes—yet a prolonged war could be used to delay elections, invoke emergency war powers, and potentially secure a third term for Trump.

Saudi Arabia and Israel’s Role

Both Saudi Arabia and Israel are heavily invested in regime change in Iran. Saudi Arabia perceives Iran as a greater existential threat than Israel because of its reliance on oil and ideological differences between a theocracy and a monarchy. Iran funds and equips the Houthis, who are antagonistic toward Saudi Arabia. Saudi economic diversification projects such as tourism, NEOM, and e‑gaming have struggled, increasing the kingdom’s need to control Middle‑East oil resources. Reports suggest Saudi Arabia pushed Trump to attack Iran, and the kingdom is allowing Israelis and Americans to use its airspace for strikes.

Motivations Behind U.S. Actions

Cien outlines three possible motivations:

1. Hubris – Empires often act overconfidently, as illustrated by Hitler’s invasion of Stalin after easy early victories. Trump’s perceived success in the Moro kidnapping may have fostered similar overconfidence in U.S. military capacity.

2. Internal Political Calculus – Trump stands to benefit financially and politically. Saudis invested $2 billion in Jared Kushner’s fund, and Israeli billionaire Miriam Adelson promised $250 million for a third Trump term. A “sideways war” could grant emergency war powers, delay elections, and generate a “rally‑around‑the‑flag” effect.

3. Eschatological Factor – Secret societies—collectively referred to as the Illuminati and composed of Jesuits, Sabatean Frankists, and Freemasons—are said to control global events. They allegedly view the Middle‑East war as a key step toward the end times and the creation of “heaven on earth.”

Outlook

Cien concludes that the United States faces a precarious future: the asymmetry of modern warfare, the economic leverage of the Gulf states, and the strategic motivations driving the conflict all point toward a potential collapse of the petrodollar system and a transition to a multipolar world order.