Trend Korea 2024: Minute-Second Society, AI ‘iPhone Moment’ and Untact

Professor Rando Kim, a leading expert in trend analysis and author of the best-selling "Trend Korea" series, recently delivered a session at Google's headquarters, sharing insights into consumer behavior and future trends. As a professor of Consumer Science at Seoul University since 1997, Professor Kim has dedicated his career to understanding how people consume and adapt to change.

The "Trend Korea" Series: A 16-Year Journey

Professor Kim introduced the "Trend Korea" series, which began in 2008 with "Trend Korea 2009." The series identifies 10 key trends each year, using an acronym based on the Chinese Zodiac animal of that year. This unique approach started with "Golden Pigs" in 2007, a year known for a baby boom. The challenge of creating a 10-letter acronym for each zodiac animal, especially for "Snake," has been a recurring theme. The series has consistently been a bestseller since 2012, a testament to its relevance and accuracy.

The Virtue of Change in a Digital Age

Professor Kim highlighted the contrasting virtues of "keeping" and "changing." He observed that Japanese culture often emphasizes "keeping," as seen in multi-generational family businesses that maintain traditional craftsmanship. In contrast, Korean culture tends to prioritize "changing," constantly seeking improvement and innovation.

He argued that while "keeping" was a crucial virtue in the analog era, where knowledge accumulated slowly, "changing" has become paramount in the digital age. The rapid pace of technological advancement and global shifts necessitates continuous adaptation. He cited examples like Korea surpassing Japan in TV technology by embracing new display types (LCD, LED, OLED) and the global rise of K-Pop due to its early adoption of digital platforms like YouTube, contrasting it with Japan's continued focus on CD sales. Similarly, Korea's strength in Webtoons over traditional cel animation reflects an adaptation to mobile consumption.

Professor Kim used the example of "Chunlian," a once-dominant PC communication service in Korea, which ultimately failed because it did not adapt to the internet era. He contrasted this with Google, which continuously prioritizes consumers and adapts to their evolving needs. He concluded that in modern society, those who change effectively ultimately surpass those who merely maintain the status quo.

The Secret to "Trend Korea's" Longevity

The enduring popularity of the "Trend Korea" series stems from its consistent focus on answering "How did it change?" and "What changed?" The team behind the series constantly re-evaluates its approach, even considering radical changes like altering the cover design or abandoning the zodiac acronyms. However, the publishing company often advises against dramatic shifts to maintain a sense of stability for readers. Professor Kim likened this to acrobats balancing plates on a ball – the apparent stability is a result of constant, intense effort and consideration.

Memorable Trends and the Birth of "Untact"

Over the past 16 years, the "Trend Korea" series has introduced numerous keywords that have become part of the public lexicon. These include "small but definite happiness," "cost-effectiveness," "cost-to-health-effectiveness," "time-effectiveness," "meaning out," and "eco-necessary era."

One notable example is "untact," a term coined by Professor Kim's team in "Trend Korea 2018" to describe technologies that minimize face-to-face interaction. Despite initial criticism regarding its grammatical correctness (as "uncontact" might be more accurate), the term was chosen for its brevity and impact. The COVID-19 pandemic subsequently propelled "untact" into widespread use, making it a significant social topic. Professor Kim expressed pride that "untact" is now being considered for inclusion in the Oxford Dictionary, highlighting its global adoption.

How to Catch Trends: Listen and Ask "Why?"

For Googlers and others sensitive to trends, Professor Kim offered two key methods for identifying emerging patterns:

1. Listen to Different Industries: Instead of focusing solely on one's own field, engaging with people from diverse industries can reveal common concerns and shifts. For instance, observing discussions about Chinese products in the distribution industry or changes in travel patterns can indicate broader societal movements. Professor Kim's "Trends Narly" group, comprising 150-200 young office workers, exemplifies this approach, as they share insights from their respective workplaces.
2. Ask "Why?": Simply observing a phenomenon is not enough; understanding the underlying reasons is crucial. Professor Kim used the example of the popularity of Hunter boots. While the immediate answer might be increased rain, further inquiry reveals that people wear them even on sunny days due to Korea's subtropical climate and unpredictable downpours. This leads to broader insights about climate change's impact across industries. Another "why" could be celebrity influence, which then leads to understanding the growing power of influencers in shaping consumer behavior.

The Dominant Trend for 2024: The Minute-Second Society

For 2024, the most significant trend identified by "Trend Korea" is the "minute-second society." This refers to a society where individuals place extreme value on time, meticulously managing every minute and second. This is evident in behaviors like arriving early for appointments, strategically positioning oneself near subway exits, and prioritizing short commutes.

Professor Kim attributed this shift to the transition from a "possession economy" to an "experience economy." In the past, wealth was demonstrated through material possessions like cars and luxury goods. Now, experiences such as travel, fine dining, and luxury hotel stays are highly valued and often shared on social media. While money was the primary resource in the possession economy, time has become equally, if not more, important in the experience economy. Unlike money, time cannot be saved or borrowed, making it a finite and precious resource.

The "minute-second society" also manifests in changing work ethics, particularly among the MZ generation. They value personal time and resent company intrusions into their evenings or weekends, viewing these as their own. Professor Kim emphasized that this is not a lack of work ethic but a re-prioritization of time. He encouraged Googlers to reflect on their time management, optimize workflows, and create "gaps" for personal reflection and hobbies.

The Second Key Trend: AI as the "iPhone Moment"

The second major trend for 2024 is the transformative impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Professor Kim believes 2024 will be a pivotal year for AI, akin to the "iPhone moment" for smartphones. While previous portable devices existed, the iPhone's App Store revolutionized how people interacted with technology. Similarly, while AI has been around, its current capabilities, exemplified by tools like Gemini, are shifting the focus from mere novelty to practical applications in work and daily life.

Professor Kim provided examples of AI's potential, such as hair salons using AI to simulate hairstyles for clients, or AI generating marketing texts and optimizing message delivery times. He personally uses Gemini to find synonyms and refine his writing, highlighting its ability to provide organized and context-aware information.

He also shared his experience with AI translation for the English version of "Trend Korea." While human translators previously took four months, AI completed a rough translation in one day. Although a human proofreader was still needed to address nuances and new terms like "minute-second society," the overall translation time was significantly reduced. Professor Kim envisions using AI for multi-language electronic publications and even AI-powered voice modification for lectures in different languages.

He stressed that while AI might seem overhyped at times, its potential for efficiency and proficiency is immense, even in seemingly unrelated fields. He coined the term "Homo-Prompt" to emphasize the importance of effective prompting and the competitive advantage gained by those who first discover AI's applications in their workflows.

Unchanging Desires: Self-Expression and Growth

Despite the constant flux of trends, Professor Kim identified fundamental human desires that remain constant. One such desire is self-expression and the need for acceptance. While in the past, people might have expressed themselves through material possessions, social media platforms like Instagram have commodified experiences and beliefs. Individuals now curate their online personas to project an image of being "cool, progressive, and socially conscious." The underlying desire to "brag" and be accepted by others remains, but the methods of expression have evolved.

Another unchanging human nature is the desire to grow. Professor Kim observed this in popular culture, from comics and novels to addictive games that provide a sense of progress. Even his 80-year-old mother learning Chinese exemplifies this innate drive for self-improvement. However, the context of growth has changed. While older generations experienced rapid economic growth and automatic career progression, younger generations face a more challenging economic landscape. This has led to a shift from grand ambitions to "incremental growth" and finding "small but certain happiness" in everyday achievements, such as reading a difficult book or improving one's physique.

Global vs. Korean Trends

Professor Kim noted that while 10 years ago, about 60-70% of Korean trends were globally applicable, today, almost all 10 keywords can be discussed on a global level. This convergence is largely due to global platforms like Google and social media, which facilitate the shared consumption of content and lifestyles worldwide.

However, Korea still exhibits some unique characteristics. Its highly competitive society leads to trends moving very quickly, with a strong tendency towards conformity. Unlike diverse fashion scenes in cities like Manhattan, once a trend takes hold in Korea, there's a strong pressure to adopt it, particularly among younger generations.

Collaboration and Legacy

Professor Kim shared insights into his collaborative process for "Trend Korea," which primarily involves his students. He democratically includes them as co-authors, providing them with valuable experience and recognition. He aims to foster their analytical abilities so that the "Trend Korea" series can continue to thrive even without his direct involvement, ensuring its legacy.

Utilizing Indicators for Trend Analysis

When asked about distinguishing fleeting fads from genuine trends, Professor Kim reiterated the importance of his two criteria: observing similar phenomena across various industries and understanding the "why" behind them. He also highlighted the increasing integration of objective data into their analysis. While initially relying heavily on human insights, the team now aims for a 60% human insight and 40% objective data balance.

They collaborate with Shinhan Card, a major Korean card company, to validate hypotheses using transaction data. While big data cannot predict trends, it can confirm their existence. They also conduct buzz analysis to identify frequently co-occurring words with emerging concepts. Surveys are used sparingly and strategically, primarily to validate hypotheses.

Professor Kim emphasized the value of expert interviews. By speaking with professionals in various fields, such as food experts or marriage counselors, one can gain deep insights into industry-specific trends and underlying consumer behaviors that might not be apparent through other data sources.

Sustainability and Personalization

Addressing the challenge of popularizing sustainability in an era of increasing personalization, Professor Kim introduced the concept of "eco-necessary." He argued that while "eco-friendly" implies a choice, "eco-necessary" signifies an imperative. Climate change, with its increasingly visible impacts like extreme weather events, has transformed environmental concerns from abstract issues into personal problems. When individuals perceive sustainability as directly affecting them, they are more likely to adopt eco-friendly behaviors, even if it involves personal inconvenience or higher costs. He stressed that policymakers should frame sustainability as a personal problem rather than a benevolent act to encourage wider adoption.

Concluding Message

Professor Kim concluded by emphasizing that modern-day failure often stems not from losing competition but from failing to adapt to a changing environment. He encouraged Googlers to keep their "sensors up," observe changes in their immediate surroundings, and continuously adapt. He quoted, "React, don't predict," acknowledging the difficulty of accurate prediction and highlighting the importance of agile responsiveness.