Euphoric Plague Weapon and Homeless Super-Spreader Risks

The author chose plague as the central element for a sinister, science-based reason, drawing from non-fiction scenarios of biological warfare.

The Euphoria Gene

During the Cold War, Soviet scientists, as revealed by Dr. Hine, engineered a super-plague weapon. They incorporated a gene for euphoria into the Yersinia pestis bacteria. The rationale was that if people contracted the plague but felt euphoric, they would be less likely to isolate themselves at home like with a typical flu. Instead, they would be inclined to socialize, for example, by going to a disco, thereby infecting many more people. This concept deeply disturbed US doctors and scientists, who deemed it "straight up evil." The author incorporated this genetically modified euphoria into their fictional plague to ground it in a real-world analogy.

In the author's scenario, the infected individuals experience euphoria for the first 24 hours. They only collapse into the disease once the euphoria wears off, by which time they have been actively shedding bacteria and infecting others, often in social settings like discos.

The Outbreak's Origin and Spread

The transmission chain in the book begins with an outbreak in Siberia. A group of international hunters encounters a scientist there. These hunters, feeling euphoric, then board planes to return to five or six of the seven continents, inadvertently spreading the genetically modified plague globally.

Another vector for the outbreak involves a scientist confessing his actions to a priest. A UCLA student present at the confession becomes infected, then immediately flies to Los Angeles.

The Vulnerability of Homeless Populations

The primary outbreak in Los Angeles occurs in a homeless camp. The author consulted epidemiologists who highlighted the extreme danger homeless populations pose in public health epidemics.

Why Homeless Populations are Vulnerable

After 9/11, the CDC established BioSense, a nationwide syndromic surveillance system. This system collects real-time information from over 7,000 hospitals, urgent care facilities, and emergency rooms to detect and contain outbreaks before they escalate into epidemics or pandemics. However, America's approximately 800,000 homeless individuals are not part of this system. Epidemiologists express significant concern about disease transmission within this demographic.

Los Angeles, with its 75,000 homeless people, including 4,000 on Skid Row lacking healthcare and facilities, is particularly vulnerable. The author's scenario depicts a pre-med student doing pro bono work at a Skid Row clinic who becomes a super-spreader.

Characteristics of Super-Spreader Events in Homeless Camps

Homeless camps are identified as super-spreader events due to:

• High density: Many people in close proximity.
• Poor airflow: Tents and makeshift shelters often have inadequate ventilation.
• Lack of public healthcare: Limited access to medical services.
• Long lines at free clinics: Further concentrating potentially infected individuals.
• Diagnostic challenges: First responders, nurses, and doctors at free clinics struggle to differentiate between common health issues prevalent among the homeless (e.g., fentanyl overdose, tuberculosis, acute flu, alcoholism mistaken for coughing up blood) and early symptoms of a novel disease. This makes early detection and containment extremely difficult.

The Breakdown of Trust and Societal Collapse

The author emphasizes that while containment is theoretically possible, it relies on speed and transparency from the host nation. In the fictional scenario, by the time Russia deploys its CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear) troops (known as Arabz) to contain the Siberian outbreak, it's already too late.

The author's narrative explores the rapid progression from outbreak to anarchy, occurring within six days due to the fast-acting nature of the plague. This rapid devolution is exacerbated by a lack of trust in the system. The Defense Department's greatest concern is not just the initial outbreak but the secondary effects of anarchy and insurrection that follow.

Once the Defense Department issues an "execution order" (EXORD) for its CBRN response forces (18,000 individuals trained for WMD incidents), it's often too late to protect the general population. At this point, the pivot shifts to protecting critical infrastructure, which includes:

• Roads
• Water systems
• Nuclear power plants
• All Department of Defense facilities

These are not merely the author's imaginings but are based on real-world wargaming scenarios conducted by defense strategists.