Women Hold More Payroll Jobs Than Men: What the Data Really Shows

For only the third time in history, women are reported to outnumber men in the workforce. This phenomenon has previously occurred in 2008 and 2019. While some might interpret this as a positive shift towards more accepted non-traditional gender roles, where some women pursue careers and some men become stay-at-home parents, the reality is more complex and potentially indicative of underlying economic issues.

Misinterpreting the Data

Many news outlets have reported that women now outnumber men in the workforce, citing a gap that recently grew to 150,000 more jobs held by women. However, this claim is based on a misunderstanding or misrepresentation of government data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides two main sets of employment data: 1. Household Survey: This survey asks individuals who is working. According to the most recent BLS data, 84.9 million men were employed in the U.S. in June of this year, compared to 77.4 million employed women. This clearly shows that men still outnumber women in terms of the number of individuals employed. 2. Establishment Survey (Payroll Jobs): This survey asks businesses how many names are on their payrolls. What has actually flipped in favor of women is the number of payroll jobs held by each gender, not the number of individuals employed.

The key distinction is that people can hold multiple jobs. If a woman holds two jobs and a man holds one, that counts as two payroll jobs for women and one for men, even though only one woman and one man are employed.

Why Women Hold More Payroll Jobs

Women are statistically more likely to hold multiple separate jobs for several reasons: * Flexibility: They often favor flexible schedules that can accommodate other commitments. * Shift Work: They are overrepresented in fields that rely on shift work. * Less Stable Employment: They may have less stable employment, especially if they are entering the workforce involuntarily.

Conversely, men are more likely to have work that doesn't involve a typical payroll, such as running a small personal business as a sole proprietorship or engaging in gig work. These are still jobs but do not count as regular payrolls.

Deeper Economic Implications

The statistical reversal in payroll jobs is not necessarily a sign of women "getting ahead" or men "falling behind" in a positive sense. Instead, it often signals broader issues in the job market.

Reasons for the Shift

1. Rise of Stay-at-Home Dads: While not yet a majority, more men are choosing to stay at home. The trend of stay-at-home dads is more socially accepted, with dads making up almost one in five of America's stay-at-home parents. This is partly due to women having higher rates of university attainment and often earning more, leading some couples to decide that the woman will work while the man manages the household.
2. Men Opting Out of the Workforce: A significant number of men are opting out of traditional commitments, including the workforce entirely. This group, particularly young men, are classified as "NEET" (Not in Education, Employment, or Training). This trend is attributed to a perception that traditional employment offers no meaningful benefit over staying at home, leading many to "fall behind in comfort." This disproportionately affects men due to traditional expectations of them being breadwinners.
3. Job Security in Female-Dominated Fields: Women typically hold roles that are more secure during economic downturns, especially in fields like healthcare.
   • Healthcare Growth: Most recent workforce growth has been in healthcare and social assistance. These "care jobs" are less susceptible to layoffs and automation, and demand is increasing due to an aging population.
   • Gender Distribution: While men can work in healthcare, fields like nursing, administration, and care work are heavily female-dominated. Registered nurses, for example, are about 87% women.
   • Shift-Based Work: Healthcare jobs are often shift-based, making it common for nurses to work at multiple facilities, each with its own payroll, contributing to the higher payroll count for women.
4. Lack of Men in Caregiving Roles: There has been a strong push for women to enter male-dominated fields, but not an equivalent push for men to enter female-dominated fields like nursing, primary care, or social work. One reason for this disparity is that these fields often pay less, and men tend to be more financially focused in career choices. However, men who do enter these fields often experience job security and rapid career progression, a phenomenon known as the "glass escalator."
5. The "Added Worker Effect" (Desperation): In economically challenging times, if a male breadwinner loses his job, his wife or partner may enter the workforce or take on additional jobs to compensate for lost income. This was evident in 2008 when men experienced 80% of early job losses due to their concentration in construction and manufacturing. This "added worker effect" means that a household might go from one payroll to two, even if the overall financial situation is worse.

Military Enlistment as an Economic Indicator

Another statistical anomaly that affects the perception of male employment is military service. The BLS does not count active duty military personnel as part of the regular workforce, nor do their payrolls count in the civilian employment statistics. Historically, when civilian job prospects are scarce, military recruitment increases. Recently, military recruitment has hit a 15-year high, with all branches meeting or exceeding their goals. This suggests that for many, particularly young men, the military offers financial stability when other options are limited. Given that the military is a male-dominated employer (women make up about 18% of active duty personnel), if these jobs were counted, men would still comfortably claim more payrolls than women.

Conclusion

The claim that women now outnumber men in the workforce is misleading. While women may hold more payroll jobs, this is largely due to factors like holding multiple jobs, working in more secure sectors, and economic necessity. The underlying trends suggest a challenging economic landscape, rather than a straightforward narrative of empowerment or shifting gender roles. The statistical reversal in payroll jobs is a real phenomenon, but it often appears during periods of economic instability, indicating broader issues in the job market.