Bitcoin and Crypto Sentiment Cycles: What to Expect in Q1 2026

Q: Sentiment Cycle Analysis

- **Emotional states**: The market moves in a rhythmic pattern of euphoria → fear → euphoria → fear. - **Timing**: Recent corrections show similar lengths (≈150, 147, 112 days), suggesting a quasi‑regular wave. - **Current phase**: The market has been in a prolonged negative/panic phase for about 63 days, with the last 28 days especially pessimistic. - **Implication**: Deep negative sentiment often precedes a bottom, making the next bounce more likely.

Q: Bitcoin Correction Patterns

- Historical corrections have lasted between 112‑150 days. - The latest correction appears to be nearing its low; a potential bottom could form in February. - Shortening correction lengths hint at a faster recovery once sentiment flips.

Q: Emotional Rhythm and Market Timing

- The wave‑like sentiment rhythm means that after a sustained fear period, euphoria tends to return. - Investors who react too late to the sentiment shift often miss the upside. - Positioning early, based on the rhythm, can capture the subsequent rally.

Q: Market Outlook for Q1 2026

- **Rate‑cut expectations**: The majority of market participants do **not** expect a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026, despite inflation data coming in lower than forecast. - **Potential narrative shifts**: 1. Lower inflation could still trigger a surprise rate cut, injecting liquidity. 2. Speculation about Jerome Powell’s resignation and a more dovish successor could further boost sentiment. - These narratives could act as catalysts for a crypto rally in early 2026.

The Blockchain Today

Summary Date: 2025-12-27 05:00:04

•

4 min read

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Channel: The Blockchain Today

Video Summary

4 min read

Bitcoin and Crypto Sentiment Cycles: What to Expect in Q1 2026

Introduction

The video analyzes Bitcoin and broader crypto price expectations for the first quarter of 2026 by examining market sentiment cycles, correction durations, and upcoming macro‑economic narratives. The presenter emphasizes that while certainty is impossible, the patterns discussed can give a clearer picture of where the market may head.

Sentiment Cycle Analysis

Emotional states: The market moves in a rhythmic pattern of euphoria → fear → euphoria → fear.
Timing: Recent corrections show similar lengths (≈150, 147, 112 days), suggesting a quasi‑regular wave.
Current phase: The market has been in a prolonged negative/panic phase for about 63 days, with the last 28 days especially pessimistic.
Implication: Deep negative sentiment often precedes a bottom, making the next bounce more likely.

Bitcoin Correction Patterns

Historical corrections have lasted between 112‑150 days.
The latest correction appears to be nearing its low; a potential bottom could form in February.
Shortening correction lengths hint at a faster recovery once sentiment flips.

Emotional Rhythm and Market Timing

The wave‑like sentiment rhythm means that after a sustained fear period, euphoria tends to return.
Investors who react too late to the sentiment shift often miss the upside.
Positioning early, based on the rhythm, can capture the subsequent rally.

Market Outlook for Q1 2026

Rate‑cut expectations: The majority of market participants do not expect a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026, despite inflation data coming in lower than forecast.
Potential narrative shifts:
Lower inflation could still trigger a surprise rate cut, injecting liquidity.
Speculation about Jerome Powell’s resignation and a more dovish successor could further boost sentiment.
These narratives could act as catalysts for a crypto rally in early 2026.

Decentralized Exchange Spotlight – Apex (Bybit’s DEX)

Growth: Apex Omni’s trading volume has surged to billions of dollars, indicating rising DEX adoption.
User experience: No KYC; users connect their wallets directly, retaining custody of funds.
Airdrop program – “Ape Season 1”:
Earn points by trading, staking, depositing on supported chains, and early‑adopter activity.
Points convert to a future token airdrop; Season 1 ends Dec 28, followed by Season 2.
Affiliate link offers 10 % extra points and a 5 % fee discount.
The presenter recommends trying the DEX, especially for diversified trading across multiple platforms.

Altcoin Market Warning

The total crypto market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) has broken a prior uptrend and is now below a strong support level.
Short‑term chart shows a declining channel turning into a potential bottom formation.
If the declining resistance is broken, a bounce could revive altcoin liquidity.
Historical altcoin corrections have shortened (≈126, 120 days), suggesting a possible February low.

Shiba Enu (SHIB) Case Study

Historical cycle: From peak to next pump took ~860 days; currently at ~70‑75 % of that cycle.
Support level: The token sits on a macro support that has historically held, though price action may appear “sketchy.”
Long‑term view: Expectation of a significant move possibly by mid‑2026, but the token is unlikely to disappear.
Strategy: In highly pessimistic markets, DCA (dollar‑cost averaging) and holding through fear can be effective.

Investment Strategies Highlighted

Accept that perfect timing is impossible; focus on net portfolio performance.
Use sentiment rhythm to anticipate market turns rather than reacting to each swing.
Diversify across exchanges (centralized and decentralized) and assets.
Consider DCA during negative sentiment periods to lower average cost.
Keep an eye on macro narratives (inflation, rate cuts, central‑bank leadership) as potential catalysts.

Conclusion

The analysis suggests that crypto markets are currently in a deep‑negative sentiment phase that historically precedes a bottom. Shortening correction durations, lower‑than‑expected inflation, and possible central‑bank policy shifts could trigger a rebound in Q1 2026. Meanwhile, decentralized exchanges like Apex are gaining traction, and strategic positioning—especially through DCA and sentiment‑cycle awareness—may capture the upcoming upside.

When crypto sentiment hits rock‑bottom, history shows a bounce follows; with shortening corrections, lower inflation and potential rate‑cut narratives, Q1 2026 could mark the start of a new rally—position early, diversify, and use dollar‑cost averaging to ride the wave.

We use AI to generate summaries. Always double-check important information in the original video.

Key Takeaways

Emotional states: The market moves in a rhythmic pattern of euphoria → fear → euphoria → fear.
Timing: Recent corrections show similar lengths (≈150, 147, 112 days), suggesting a quasi‑regular wave.

Educational Value

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Full Transcript

If you want to know what to expect with
Bitcoin and crypto prices for the first
quarter of 2026,
you'll better watch this video. We are
going to have a look at the sentiment
cycles. How much time are we spending in
certain emotional states? And there's a
very interesting pattern visible. The
majority is not expecting a rate cut for
January. There are some warning signals
in the chart, but there's also some
clarity which tells us a little bit in
what type of time period we'll need to
wait in order to see some better days
coming to crypto as the last months it
just has been a big slaughterhouse. So
guys, if this sounds interesting to you,
make sure support the channel with a
like, subscribe if you're new, and let's
dive straight into the charts. I hope
you guys ready for the charts because it
might be enlightening what we are going
to look at in today's video. So let's
start with Bitcoin because this is a lot
of things are just falling
together in this place and I would say
at the end of this video guys there's a
very clear picture and market structure
and insights of what is going on with
the markets right now where we have been
in in the markets in the emotional state
also a little bit the mindset of the
investors right now the expectations and
how that could result in a specific
Pacific quarter 1 2026. So definitely
guys there is no certainty never but it
will make things very clear but yeah so
let's have a look. So when we have a
look guys is this whole bull market in
Bitcoin the corrections have been
actually pretty similar pretty similar
corrections in terms of time. So for
example, we have a very long corrective
period right here where we had 150 days
of a correction. Here we had 150 days. A
little bit below 147 from the high to
the low. Here we have from the high to
the low 112 days. And I just like put
here from the high to the low 112 as
well. It might be a little bit shorter
if this was the low. Maybe this was the
high. So we might view it like this that
we still have to see the low in
February. That definitely a possible but
for now I just place it right here. But
this is something that I want to touch a
little bit deeper on in today's video as
well because when we look at these
corrections, right, we can also look at
the emotional state of the markets. And
then you can see very clearly guys that
the market just goes from euphoria right
here. This is euphoria basically to back
to fear and from fear it goes back to
euphoria and from euphoria it goes back
to fear from fear it goes back to
euphoria but the the interesting pattern
is you can already see this is going in
waves we're going down up down up down
and this is already like the time right
here to go up right here and to go up
right here that time is looks pretty
similar like there is a rhythm in this
it's not uh going Like this for example,
right? There is a less rhythm in this um
pattern, right? This is a rhythmic
pattern where you can see the highs and
the lows have like a similar time.
That's also what we are seeing right
now. So we just basically uh have been
stuck in the euphoria state, right? for
the people who didn't expect this
correction to occur. And we have been
right now sitting already for a long
time in this emotional state that is
slowly getting more and more depressing
or pessimistic or negative about the
markets. Right now we are we are at very
low point. We are at very low levels in
terms of sentiment and that's actually
pretty good or bullish for the price
because when we have a look at how long
we spent in here. So let's say right
here right we just say the panic phase
we spent here 63 days that's 2 months
right in this in this time frame we
spent 2 months in very negative price
action here we spent 28 days right now
we are also roughly 28 days in this very
negative emotional state of the market.
So we are already concerning previous
corrections. We are already at a phase
where we are sufficiently negative so to
say hope this makes sense in order to
have that new fundamental bottom where
we can see prices going up again. So we
are already definitely if not we have
already seen a bottom. If we haven't
seen a bottom we are very very close to
that bottom. If we look at the rhythmic
pattern of the emotional states and I
can also sense it in the markets um that
a lot of people are and we have seen it
along the way a lot of people that were
bullish they actually are starting to
turn be bearish. You are seeing I saw
some accounts uh the other day on
Twitter who have been very bullish on
the markets. uh they have actually been
suddenly saying right here that they
were actually not too bullish and that
they shifted more to different markets
that have been giving better returns.
But of course they are saying that at a
at a stage where it's actually already
too late. So the way with investing and
you know this is definitely not uh to
say that like I do it always good
because I never claim that there are
good calls in a year 100%. But I I got
my weaknesses as well. I'm going to make
a lot of mistakes the end the end of the
year for me what what counts the most is
are you net plus or net down? Are you up
or down in your portfolio? Because you
cannot perfectly play the markets. This
is just not how it works. You cannot
always like perfectly time everything.
But the way to make money most of the
time is to foresee the future, right? If
you are reacting too much in the state
itself, you're often too late. So that's
why these uh emotional tides or the
patterns, the rhythmic patterns are so
important because with the rhythmic
patterns you can easily predict what
most likely will be catching hype in the
future. And if you position yourself
right now there, you are an early
positioner which will uh which will
catch wins once the hype will be there.
So yeah guys, right now changing markets
I personally think is a little bit on
the late side because it looks like
right now from a rhythmic perspective
that we are you know at least going to
bounce very very soon. I still think
that because all the negativity, all the
pessimist, pessimism that is active in
the markets or that is present in the
markets will have a counter reaction.
And just to be fair and honest with you
guys right here, uh I've been too
bullish during this time period, right?
I've been too bullish. I know that. And
I also said and I got to be fair about
this too. I said that I'm not not good
in picking tops, right? So, one thing
that worked really good for our
community is that we picked a lot of
winners during 224 and 225, right? We we
catched a lot of um unique winners, a
lot of tokens that actually performed
pretty well. For example, Dash, which
was not mentioned by many other
communities. Actually, I haven't really
seen it mentioned except for one other
YouTube channel, which I actually find
very interesting. Um, but yeah, just so
to say, guys, you got to know a little
bit where your strengths are, where your
weaknesses are, and maybe be honest
about it as well. At least that's what
I'm trying because I know for a fact
that yeah, I'm making many mistakes, but
I also uh often am at the right side of
the coin and then can capitulize on it.
you know different market conditions
serve me better generally with the style
of my analysis the style of my trading.
Uh but yeah enough about that what we
are seeing right here is that the tides
have been going down. The tides have
been turning. We are in a negative
market state already for 28 days which
previous times was sufficient enough to
get a very big rally. I think this will
eventually go back to higher levels.
Something that I want to mention
actually two things that you can notice
here is that the corrections generally
tend to get smaller. Right? So here we
have 154 days 147 112. This is
significantly smaller. This could be
smaller as well. If this if we already
would have seen the low. So if from that
high this was actually potentially the
low then it will be 91 days. So that's
again a shorter correction. I think it's
definitely possible. Interestingly, if
we look at the bare market, you can see
the behavior of the emotional sentiment
is very different. So, we have uh from
the bull market, we're still in euphoria
right here. And then in the bare market,
you can see we are spending way time in
this negative territory. Like the amount
of time we are in this fearful stage, it
is way longer. And the the times that
we're actually getting back to euphoria
is not that high. So that might be
another signal we can use right now. How
euphoric is the market going to be uh in
the next coming weeks and months ahead
quarter one of 2026. Now looking at this
looking at these ties guys there's an
interesting development forming because
many people actually expect that um
there will not be a rate cut on the 28th
of January. So quarter one January 2026.
And that's f that's pretty interesting
because we actually see that inflation
is coming down and which is below and
this is interesting below the
expectation. So a lot of the people
expected inflation to be pretty high as
you can see right here but it came way
lower and lower inflation of course
would increase the likelihood of a rate
cut. So now you can see already a little
bit the narrative. So we have most
majority of the market participants of
course because they are very pessimistic
right now they are expecting rates to
stay the same which is possible but it
is like the major like over majority of
the markets inflation is lower than
expected more reason to get a rate cut.
So if there would for example be more
speculation of a potential rate cut
which could then be again the future
where we are talking about we got to
predict a little bit what's going to be
the topic or hype in the future that
could drive more liquidity to the
markets for the anticipation of that
rate cut in January. Another thing that
we could see in quadana that's maybe
going to be quarter two but the
anticipation of Jerome Powell resigning
and being replaced by maybe someone who
is a little bit more easy on the
liquidity in the markets right these are
all speculation but potential narratives
that actually could could be the
narrative with the next period where we
are going to go up again uh because we
have been in this pessimistic market
state then Guys, there's a big warning
sign in the markets present right now
which I want to talk about. But before
we are going to go into that, I want to
mention Apex because Apex is the
decentralized exchange of Bybit and
there are some very interesting
developments going on with this
decentralized exchange. I just had
contact with one of the employees of
Apex. It was very interesting
conversation that we had because a lot
of things are actually on the horizon.
First of all guys, like put Apex on the
side. I think decentralized exchanges
are going to be more and more popular
and we are not for nothing seeing the
privacy sector, right? Monero, Ccash
making these crazy gains because people
don't trust central entities anymore. So
decentralized exchanges, especially
Apex, a very good decentralized
exchange, will become more popular in
the future. The only thing the only
thing that people uh need to do is take
that extra step in order to learn how a
decentralized exchange work. Normally
you create an account with an exchange,
right? You use your email and a
password. You have an account, right?
Sometimes you have to do KYC
verification on a decentralized
exchange. You don't have to do that. But
a decentralized exchange actually works
as follow. You need to connect your
wallet with the exchange. So there is no
central entity that is controlling your
funds. You are still in custody of your
funds. You just connect your wallet to a
exchange and then you can trade from
your wallet on the exchange. Right. So
that's actually a very interesting way
of trading and really interesting way of
um yeah placing orders in the markets
because you we are relying on a
decentralized system not on a central
entity. That's of course why it's called
a decentralized exchange. But the volume
of decentralized exchanges is really
increasing significantly guys. It's like
a couple of years ago. Maybe you
remember it a decentralized exchange.
Nobody heard about it. Last year it was
very unique for people to trade on a
decentralized exchange. Right now we are
seeing uh billions of billions of
dollars in trading volume on Apex Omni.
That's only on Apex Omni. So other but
here you can already see like the
trading volume of Apex Omni especially
in the last months has been
significantly increasing. Also of course
by bit made an official um made it more
official that they are backing this
decentralized exchange. So definitely
interesting guys and what I want to
mention is that they actually have been
organizing an airdrop. It's called Ape
season 1 where you can basically get
points. Once you get certain points for
doing certain tasks, right? And the
tasks that you could do are for example
um [snorts] you know trading have some
volume going on. Uh do certain deposits
on certain chains, stake some of your
crypto, you have early adopted bonus,
you have um Dex Pioneer boost if you use
the DEX very early on. But these are
actually points and these points will
eventually result in a token. that token
will be then an airdrop will be air
dropped to the people generating the
points. So what I understood is Ape
season 1 is going to finish guys by the
end of this month December 28th but
after ape season 1 there will be ape
season 2. So this will eventually
continue into a new um yeah new way
where you can actually earn points and
then eventually be eligible to get an
airdrop. And I think this airdrop guys
will be a very successful one uh because
of all the developments that are going
on with Apex and the increase in trading
volume. As you can see, there's a lot of
things going for this exchange. So yeah,
guys, I just wanted to mention this. I
mention this one quite often because I
like it. Uh I definitely think it's one
of the better exchange out there. If you
don't have any experience with a
decentralized exchange, check it out.
They have, of course, the team boost as
well. That is everyone who signed up
with my specific affiliate link in the
description. You get a 10% extra points
uh from all the points you generated.
You get 10% extra just by being in the
team of the blockchain today, but you
also get 5% discount on your fees. So,
of course, over time, that will save a
lot of money. So, if you're interested
in that guys, make sure to check this
decentralized exchange with the
affiliate link down below. Now we go to
the next part of the video and that is
the warning a little bit guys and this
is yeah it's a bit ugly what we are
seeing because this is the total market
cap with uh without Ethereum and Bitcoin
and we had this very nice uptrend which
we kind of broke and right now we are
trading below a massive support right so
this is something that definitely looks
a little bit worrying so we got to keep
an eye on this as well be but on the
shorter term time frame I actually think
we could be seeing the like early signs
of a potential at least short-term
reversal. If we uh bring this up, we
have this declining channel and then
these the lows is it's forming more of a
bottom formation right here. So, we have
first a very clear downtrend. We are
technically still in a downtrend, but
it's already moving more into a sideways
type of price action, which generally is
one of the first signs you want to see
when potentially bottoming because we
can of course consolidate and eventually
continue this move down. Uh but if we
can break first of all the declining
resistance, we might get a bounce or
maybe we even get some more significant
increase in liquidity in the altcoin
market. So this is something to watch.
Terms of timing guys also very
interesting. Go back to the weekly time
frame.
White here is that also the corrections
on the altcoin market have been around
like uh this one was 126 days. This
correction this one was 120 days. The
next one right now if we would calculate
as well 120 days it means that we are
going to see the next low in February
possible but it is also possible of
course that this correction is shorter
in duration because that's what we kind
of see in the previous corrections
they're getting shorter in duration
right so but in terms of timing this
makes we are already at the tide as you
can see where we just talked about with
Bitcoin as Well, where we are already
being we have been pushed down to the
negative uh sentiment of the markets and
in terms of time again it makes sense
for this to sooner or later to roll over
but it doesn't mean that's important to
say doesn't mean that you have a
guaranteed bottom right now of course
but it just means that the wind is more
likely coming from east in the next
coming months than coming from west
which we have seen in the past months. I
hope this really makes sense. But this
is a little bit how you can better
navigate these markets, right? Uh okay.
Now go to the next thing and that is
Sheiba Enu. The there's no specific
reason for the altcoin that I actually
take this as an example. But if you look
at the structure of Shiba Enu, we can
actually see the previous time from the
top till the next pump it took 860 days.
Right now we are on let's say uh 70%,
maybe even 75%. Right? So in the shorter
term time frame of course we still could
you know go a little bit sideways even
could a little bit lower. I have to say
in the shortterm time frame it looks a
little bit sketchy right here but you
also got to imagine it will always look
sketchy at these macro support levels.
You think right here people were very
scared right here people were very
scared right and eventually it just went
sideways and took off. So I always take
these macro supports very seriously and
I don't expect them easily to be break
to be broken because they just don't
break that easily and especially guys
she enu being the first meme token as
you can see right here on this list for
Japan economy or for Japan Japanese
institutions to invest with tax
benefits. So it's definitely a [snorts]
coin that is uh going to stay. I
personally believe being at macro
support I would generally assume again
no guarantees but generally assume that
that support will hold but also that it
will feel very sketchy when we are
touching that support and maybe we wick
below you know maybe a lot of people
need to get convinced we are going to
break that level uh but eventually um we
might I I'm I'm betting on that we are
holding so that's only what I can say
what I'm doing
So yeah, that's not not financial advice
of course, but just to share my personal
uh personal take on it, right? I've been
now quite a while in the markets and of
course everything can break down and
everything can goes to zero and there
are always risk in the markets. But for
me personally, what has worked is um
when I feel fearful at for example macro
support, I always did better just
waiting it out and uh most of the time
it just results in some sideways, some a
little bit more scaring, some sideways
price action and eventually holding the
structure. So I'm betting on that guys.
And as you can see right here, it might
take a little bit longer. You know, it
might take till the middle of 2026
before we really see some firework in
this token, but I don't think this token
is going anywhere. It's not going away,
let's so to say. Right. So, right now,
we have very pessimistic market
conditions. I think it's a good time to
buy. I think it's a good time to enter
the markets. DCA in these times
definitely. It's difficult to trade. Of
course, the direction sometimes is not
that clear. The easy times I believe
will come back. They definitely will
come back. It's just that crypto goes in
in summers and winters, right? We have
like right now we kind of in a crypto
winter.
So the liquidity is also rotating from
regular financial markets, precious
metals, crypto, so forth and so forth,
right? So uh we are right now just
weathering the storms, the hard times.
But after these times there will come
these times again where this emotional
sentiment will go up again. We will be
feeling having more positive feelings
again. That is the moment we got to
observe very good how that will look in
the charts. How the structure will look
right here where do we get rejected? Uh
what is the reaction of the price on
these moments? So yeah guys this is what
I'm thinking right now. I think we are
being dragged pushed down into a
negative sentiment with the potential to
see the opposite direction. The
narrative coming along with that is most
people expecting rates not to change
while inflation actually came way lower
than expected
and potentially power resigning are all
some things that of course in one or two
months could feel way more bullish than
it would feel right now. So yeah guys,
that is the topic or the content of
today's video. I hope you enjoyed it. If
so, leave a thumbs up. Very much
appreciated. And for the ones
interested, check out Apex Omni, join
the seasons, get the airdrop if you are
trading anyway. Uh make sure you
diversify on various exchanges.
Uh use multiple exchanges. That's
definitely better. Uh but definitely
experiment with decentralized exchanges.
Uh if you are interested in that, if you
are a professional trader or if you are,
you know, an advanced trader, definitely
check that stuff out. Okay guys, I want
to wish every single one of you
beautiful day today and I hope to see
every single one of you in the next
video. Bye-bye.

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About This Summary

Video Summary

Bitcoin and Crypto Sentiment Cycles: What to Expect in Q1 2026

Introduction

Sentiment Cycle Analysis

Bitcoin Correction Patterns

Emotional Rhythm and Market Timing

Market Outlook for Q1 2026

Decentralized Exchange Spotlight – Apex (Bybit’s DEX)

Altcoin Market Warning

Shiba Enu (SHIB) Case Study

Investment Strategies Highlighted

Conclusion

Key Takeaways

Educational Value

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Bitcoin and Crypto Sentiment Cycles: What to Expect in Q1 2026

Market Outlook for Q1 2026