Geopolitical Forecasts and Financial Turmoil: Insights from the Capital Cause Podcast (Dec 24 2025)

Introduction

The episode of Capital Cause recorded on Christmas Eve 2025 brings together host Danny, Alex Crraer, and Larry Johnson to dissect a chaotic year of geopolitics, finance, and intelligence intrigue. Their conversation jumps from Venezuela to Iran, from a looming "Bond Armageddon" to the possible disintegration of the European Union and NATO, ending with bold predictions for 2026.

Venezuela: A Murky U.S. Objective

• Unclear motives – Trump’s announced "Golden Battalion" ships off Venezuela are framed as a fight against drugs, oil, and alleged Iranian‑Hezbollah influence, but none of the guests find a coherent strategy.
• Operational risks – Larry notes the terrain is more challenging than Vietnam, warning that any U.S. ground deployment would be a logistical nightmare.
• Strategic context – The discussion suggests Venezuela may be a peripheral piece in a larger U.S. effort to curb Chinese and Iranian footholds in Latin America.

Iran, Hamas, and the Middle‑East Civil War

• Intelligence community split – A segment of U.S. intelligence advocates pulling out of the Middle East, focusing instead on a looming China conflict. Figures such as Briggs Colby and Tulsi Gabbard are cited.
• Iran’s growing alliance – Iran is now cooperating more closely with Russia and China, boosting its missile capabilities and posing a heightened threat to Israel.
• U.S. policy contradictions – The hosts argue that the Trump administration’s rhetoric about the Monroe Doctrine clashes with the doctrine’s original principle of non‑intervention.

The U.S.–China–Russia Triangle

• New financial system – Russia and China are building an alternative to SWIFT (the SIPC system) and creating joint insurance and trade mechanisms, leaving the West scrambling.
• Strategic misreading – The U.S. still treats Russia as a “piss‑ant” that cannot align with China, a view the guests deem obsolete.
• Arctic ambitions – A bold claim is made that the United States may annex Greenland, framed as a national‑security move tied to Arctic cooperation with Russia and China.

Europe’s Crisis and the Bond Armageddon

• Rising bond yields – Germany, France, and the UK show soaring yields, indicating a loss of confidence in sovereign debt.
• Four systemic failures:
• Pandemic‑driven liquidity floods.
• The unexpected election of Trump, removing a traditional U.S. backstop.
• The Ukraine war draining resources without creating new collateral.
• Over‑reliance on debt financing as China retreats from buying Western bonds.
• Historical parallel – The guests compare the situation to Germany’s 1923 hyper‑inflation, warning of high inflation, currency collapse, and a vertical stock‑market crash.
• Commodity rally – Gold, silver, platinum, and other precious metals are surging as investors seek hedges.

Intelligence Community “Civil War”

• Multiple factions – Beyond a simple binary, there are at least three competing schools of thought within U.S. intelligence regarding the Middle East, China, and Russia.
• Public rifts – Cases like the investigation into the Kirk assassination and disputes involving figures such as Cash Patel illustrate the openness of these internal battles.

2026 Predictions (Three Big Bets)

• Bond Armageddon – Shorting European, UK, and Japanese government bonds could be the most profitable trade of the year.
• Geopolitical fragmentation – Disintegration of the European Union and possibly NATO.
• U.S. acquisition of Greenland – Presented as a national‑security claim, potentially coordinated with Russia and China.

Closing Remarks

The hosts wrap up by sharing their contact points, promoting their newsletters, and wishing listeners a Merry Christmas. The tone remains a blend of speculative geopolitics, financial alarmism, and a hint of conspiratorial narrative.

The podcast paints a bleak picture for 2026: soaring sovereign debt, a fracturing Western alliance, and a shifting global balance that favors a China‑Russia partnership, while the United States pursues bold, controversial moves such as a possible claim on Greenland. Investors and policymakers alike should brace for a financial shock and a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.